Communal aspirations are often difficult to bet on. So uncertain would most of the hypotheses be that reasoned deliberations are less likely. The more plausible a proposition seems, according to the rule, the more credible it becomes.

National aspirations are even more complicated for they represent the consensus of varying interest groups residing under a given jurisdiction. A slight error of judgment can lead to wrong conclusions and thus significantly affect some of the interest groups. However, an interdependent world has made conjuncture inevitably human.

Habitually, conventional theories are inapplicable in Ethiopia as systemic readjustment is unusually frequent. State predictability is rare. Regulatory surprises are so common that markets exist in a dynamic disequilibrium. It is only rarely that subsequent governments share agendas that draw incessant public support.

One such agenda had been solidifying the economic and political influence of the country in the Eastern Africa region. Since the very establishment of the Ethiopian state, the aspiration has been definitive, predictable and widely agreeable. It has transcended ideologies and governance structures; it has survived generations.

The electric interconnection with Djibouti launched last week, which had been considered for over 40 years, has brought the debate of the regional aspirations of the nation back into the policy discourse. Foreseen to generate over 700 million dollars in the next 20 years, the interconnection project is considered indicative of the national aspiration; assuming a dominant role in regional economics and politics. As influence is often dominated more by economic currency than politics, the development paves the way for further regional integration and predictable influence.

It is no less important in terms of revenue for the economy, as it promotes diversification. It would uplift the 29.7 billion dollar economy of Ethiopia, according to the international monetary fund (IMF), and place it on equal footing with that of Sudan and Kenya, which have an economic size of 65.4 billion dollars and 32 billion dollars, respectively. For Djibouti, which has an economy of 1.1 billion dollars, the endeavor opens an opportunity for an economic takeoff with cheap energy prices that some estimate to be incised by 72pc.

It appears that the aspiration is just the beginning. Electric interconnections with Kenya and Sudan are in the pipeline. Preparations are underway to link with Somaliland by road. The five-year economic plan foresees revitalizing rail transport, diversifying seaways, and pushing ahead for economic integration in the Intergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD) region. Certainly, these all indicate the height of the national ambition.

So much is going on regionally on the economic front, not to mention in Ethiopia. Economic growth is no longer sacred. Countries are opening their markets up, whilst intraregional trade has grown by nine per cent annually, since 2005. Yet, the latent competition for regional hegemony is increasingly fiercer.

Skepticism underlies the competition. Poor resource base furthers it, while politics is kept at the margin. Yet, regional stability is at a high, save Somalia.   

For critics, the Ethiopian rush for regional hegemony needs to be backed up by enhanced economic dividends. The current trend is unsustainable as it is not backed by comparable economic dominance. It is not even viable, some argue, as it is top-down.

Alleviating the infrastructure deficit would obviously set the economy up for further expansion and diversification. In doing so, it is also critical to assume a dominant position in the regional economics and politics, claims the government. It is only through economic development that sustained regional hegemony can be achieved. Playing mere politics is obsolete; especially in a region where developmental demand is piling up daily.

Politics in the region has been about rivalry since the 1950s. Economic cooperation has remained a pipedream. Militarizing insurgents was the conventional political tactic of the zero-sum game. Developmental issues were left to international organizations. As closed as economies were, governments paid little attention to opening up. It is only lately that the mood has started to change.

To its credit, the current Ethiopian government has labored hard to normalize inter-country relations in the region. Guided by its developmental foreign policy, which emphasizes economic diplomacy, it has played a critical role in brokering peace. It has even gone as far as institutionalizing development cooperation.

The effort is bearing fruit. Countries in the region are clenching their fists for development and cooperation. Joint projects of infrastructure development, trade liberalization, human resource development and technology sharing are flourishing. However, the road ahead is still uncertain.         

Political uncertainty lingers as the prime systemic hitch. Mounting democratic deficit erodes developmental ownership. Backdoor political deals remain to affect sustained developmental cooperation. Yet, the dimensions of the challenge varies across countries.

With consolidating economic growth, the challenge for Ethiopians originates from  a governmental accountability deficit. Dwindling political pluralism has weakened the cross-border leverage of economic achievements. It is compounded with declining government commitment.

The policy discourse in the country is dominated by state declarations. Although different policy documents of the government state that reasoned debate is of high importance in a diversified country such as Ethiopia, little of that is seen on the ground lately. The space for reasoned discourse is narrowing with time. Policy monopoly has become the new trend.

An expanding culture of fear is also challenging the Ethiopian aspiration. The intensity of both actual and perceived fear is mounting. No wonder that reasoned discourse is progressively being  pushed away by a culture of fear. Deliberating on policy agendas is becoming extinct with the reek of fear spoiling the environment. Certainly, this supplements the rising policy monopoly of the EPRDF.

Similarly, public scrutiny of policy decisions is infrequent, if not non-existent. Participation of the public in policy deliberations is being increasingly marginalized. The public is living in the shadows of poor information about national plans. Hence, regulatory surprises are becoming common place.

Consolidating regional hegemony is as political as it is economic. It should be underpinned with strong public support, as it demands societal ownership. Developing the infrastructure base of the country alone cannot bring about the intended regional influence in an era of interdependence. Soft power, an influence that originates from strong public support, is as equally important as hard economic power. The rush to assume a dominant economic position in Eastern Africa needs to be supplemented with equivalent political progress at home.

The government should stay committed to promoting political pluralism. Dominant party hegemony should not raze reasoned political discourse. Diversifying the political base should be provided with due governmental attention. Institutional structures of pluralism such as the Inter-Party Dialogue Forum need to be utilized to advance the agenda of pluralism. Not that they should be used for political maneuvering, but for frank policy discourse.                     

Fear needs to be wiped out of the public discourse. Revitalizing the social contract should be the prime way to solidify public support on both the economic and political fronts. Accountability should be mainstreamed within the state structure all the way down to the local level. So should transparency be promoted in all economic plans.

The spark of hope that illuminates the initiative for regional economic integration should be fueled by vibrant public discourse. It is only then that it can be sustained. Filling the democratic deficit at home is as important as optimizing the comparative advantage of the country at the regional level.

Balancing interests is what actually makes national aspirations not just ambitious but achievable.