The number of automobiles on the streets of Addis Abeba seems to increase each day. Newly built wide lane roads, the growing economy, expanding business mindedness, and increasing income have pushed car ownership so high that parking lots across the city are crowded at any time.

A car, broadband Internet, a degree, and a house lift an individual up to the middle class, according to newly published research conducted by African Development Bank (AfDB). No car, no promotion to the middle class, seems to be the conclusion.

An Ethiopian needs to have a permanent job paying her 66,000 Br annually to join the lucky 21.5pc of Ethiopians in the middle class, the research found. With a monthly salary of 5,500 Br, he could fill up his car, pay for health insurance, and send her children to school, according to the research.

Those far down the ladder now might have the chance to jump up a few rungs in 2030, when it is projected that Ethiopia would top the chart in middle income dominance with Nigeria and South Africa.   

The research failed to indicate the opportunity cost of joining the middle class, given the rising cost of living, unbridled unemployment, mounting functional illiteracy, and a burdened business environment.

Provided that individual mobility is a function of overall societal prosperity, the broader picture matters most.

Strong economic growth and a stable investment climate are the requirements for producing a critical mass of middle incomers. With a toddling private sector that is dwarfed by heavy state intervention, it is uncertain how Ethiopia fits into the projection.

The expanding service sector, signified by the mushrooming cafés, restaurants, pizzerias, night clubs, and pensions, might fit into the perspective. So long as the service sector is at the wheel, upward mobility would remain temporary in Ethiopia, where only five per cent of the middle class have a stable income, the research found.

Not only do middle incomers provide an economy with entrepreneurial clout and technical skill, but they demand accountability from the government and appointment to the bureaucracy to be driven by merit, the research revealed.

The demand side of the equation would remain a challenge for Ethiopia as long as the prevailing business and public service systems are plagued with patrimony, incompetence, and corruption.

The two sides of the equation are highly correlated. Expecting economic growth driven by middle income skills would not materialise without establishing a transparent business regime and entrepreneurial support system.

Countries with strong economic growth and a vibrant private sector have a big middle income population and the reduction of income inequality has a lot to contribute to help a vibrant middle income take off, the research found.

Ironically, the construction boom along Africa Avenue (Bole Road) might show that Ethiopia is shining, while the slum scene on Tesema Aba Kemaw Street (Teklehaimanot Road) alerts us to the fact that a lot remains to be done. Middle income stability is far from guaranteed in Ethiopia.

Shopping and entertainment are typical to the lifestyle of the African middle class, as the research revealed.

The flourishing shopping malls, eateries, and franchise cafés are the customary places where the Ethiopian middle class hangs out.

However, consumption expenditure erodes long-term investment. Growing economies such as Ethiopia should rather encourage citizens to save. To this end, financial institutions need to increase the saving interest rate, and avail affordable investment opportunities for the middle class.

Creating a middle class is like a fission reaction where growth in one sector creates a domino effect on the other.

Middle incomers demand quality education for their children. Private schools will mushroom when their numbers increase. As they also care about their health, private healthcare providers would be encouraged. This would decrease the burden on the public financed health system and help to create an efficient allocation of resources.

The process might also create lopsided resource allocation. More cars need better roads. As the poor do not drive, the middle incomers would proportionally benefit from the roads more. Resource inefficiency might loom while inequality burgeons.

The toughest question posed to the government by the emerging middle class would be their insistence on the rule of law, broad freedoms, and equal opportunities. The timing of the demands may not conform to the rate of reform. Piling up backlogs of demand would result in public resentment.

With a limited democratic culture and experience, the demand of all interest groups to be fairly represented in government might not be satisfied. The system should leave the loser at least the spoils.

The challenge of absorbing a growing middle class is all rounded, and expanding the democratic space is necessary to this end. Seeing that the middle class is the engine of economic growth, innovation, transformation, and democratisation, the building of a national absorption capacity is essential.

This would demand changing the game from no car, no class to “Drive Safely in 2030.”