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As the
world economy tumbles off the edge of a precipice, critics
of the economics profession are raising questions about its
complicity in the current crisis. Rightly so: economists
have plenty to answer for.
It was
economists who legitimized and popularized the view that
unfettered finance was a boon to society. They spoke with
near unanimity when it came to the "dangers of government
over-regulation." Their technical expertise - or what seemed
like it at the time - gave them a privileged position as
opinion makers, as well as access to the corridors of power.
Very
few among them - notable exceptions including Nouriel
Roubini and Robert Shiller - raised alarm bells about the
crisis to come. Perhaps worse still, the profession has
failed to provide helpful guidance in steering the world
economy out of its current mess. On Keynesian fiscal
stimulus, economists' views range from "absolutely
essential" to "ineffective and harmful."
On
re-regulating finance, there are plenty of good ideas, but
little convergence. From the near-consensus on the virtues
of a finance-centric model of the world, the economics
profession has moved to a near-total absence of consensus on
what ought to be done.
So is
economics in need of a major shake-up? Should we burn our
existing textbooks and rewrite them from scratch?
Actually, no. Without recourse to the economist's toolkit,
we cannot even begin to make sense of the current crisis.
Why,
for example, did China's decision to accumulate foreign
reserves result in a mortgage lender in Ohio taking
excessive risks?
If your
answer does not use elements from behavioural economics,
agency theory, information economics, and international
economics, among others, it is likely to remain seriously
incomplete.
The
fault lies not with economics, but with economists. The
problem is that economists - and those who listen to them -
became over-confident in their preferred models of the
moment: markets are efficient, financial innovation
transfers risk to those best able to bear it,
self-regulation works best, and government intervention is
ineffective and harmful.
They
forgot that there were many other models that led in
radically different directions. Hubris creates blind spots.
If anything needs fixing, it is the sociology of the
profession. The textbooks - at least those used in advanced
courses - are fine.
Non-economists tend to think of economics as a discipline
that idolizes markets and a narrow concept of (allocative)
efficiency. If the only economics course you take is the
typical introductory survey, or if you are a journalist
asking an economist for a quick opinion on a policy issue,
that is indeed what you will encounter. But take a few more
economics courses, or spend some time in advanced seminar
rooms, and you will get a different picture.
Labour
economists focus not only on how trade unions can distort
markets, but also how, under certain conditions, they can
enhance productivity. Trade economists study the
implications of globalization on inequality within and
across countries. Finance theorists have written reams on
the consequences of the failure of the "efficient markets"
hypothesis. Open-economy macroeconomists examine the
instabilities of international finance. Advanced training in
economics requires learning about market failures in detail,
and about the myriad ways in which governments can help
markets work better.
Macroeconomics may be the only applied field within
economics in which more training puts greater distance
between the specialist and the real world, owing to its
reliance on highly unrealistic models that sacrifice
relevance to technical rigor. Sadly, in view of today's
needs, macroeconomists have made little progress on policy
since John Maynard Keynes explained how economies could get
stuck in unemployment due to deficient aggregate demand.
Some,
like Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman, would say that the field
has actually regressed.
Economics is really a toolkit with multiple models - each a
different, stylized representation of some aspect of
reality. One's skill as an economist depends on the ability
to pick and choose the right model for the situation.
Economics' richness has not been reflected in public debate
because economists have taken far too much license. Instead
of presenting menus of options and listing the relevant
trade-offs, which is what economics is about, economists
have too often conveyed their own social and political
preferences. Instead of being analysts, they have been
ideologues, favouring one set of social arrangements over
others.
Furthermore, economists have been reluctant to share their
intellectual doubts with the public, lest they "empower the
barbarians." No economist can be entirely sure that his
preferred model is correct. But when he and others advocate
it to the exclusion of alternatives, they end up
communicating a vastly exaggerated degree of confidence
about what course of action is required.
Paradoxically, then, the current disarray within the
profession is perhaps a better reflection of the
profession's true value added than its previous misleading
consensus. Economics can at best clarify the choices for
policy makers; it cannot make those choices for them.
When
economists disagree, the world gets exposed to legitimate
differences of views on how the economy operates. It is
when they agree too much that the public should beware.
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