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Now is a world abuzz with talk about either corporate "bailouts" or fat economic "stimulus packages". The process has also become a way to see the wealth of nations; compare America's close to 787 billion dollars (150 times the Ethiopian federal budget for the current fiscal year) in an economic stimulus programme approved by its congress on Friday, February 10, 2009, to Australia's 41.5 billion dollars approved by its parliament last week to Britain's 29.8 billion dollars and Germany's 65 billion dollars.

The poor countries in places such as Africa have little to do by way of injecting money into the economy; they should be happy with the mere fact that the oil price has declined so much that current prices of 40 dollars per barrel could feel as God-sent economic relief. With imported inflation obliterating their gains in economic growth, what would have happened to these countries had the price of international oil kept going at the rate of 140 dollars per barrel?

Ethiopia's is a case in point; partly blamed on imported materials; inflation had reached a historical high of close to 60pc on food prices a few months ago. Despite the controversy on who might have actually profited out of the price hike - the government consistently claiming the farming community made the largest earnings - there was a pretty good deal consensus that the urban poor, particularly those in the fixed income bracket have been the largest losers. That explains why the federal government spent over 100 million dollars in buying wheat from a trader whose office is in London.

The whole idea of importing wheat into the country and distribute it cheap was to fend off both inflation and expectation of it; while on the other hand it was to provide social relief to the urban poor. How much have these objectives been met is open for debate. Whether or not inflation has subsided depends who you may talk to. For instance, the macroeconomic team of the country - comprising the Prime Minister, his chief economic advisor, the ministers of Trade and Industry (MoTI) and Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), as well as the governor of the central bank - says prices have indeed stopped their upward spiral. That is not what those at the Central Statistics Agency say; their data for the past six months show an unabated trend of inflation growth.

There are those who would argue that the imported wheat in two rounds in the past has had little impact in the fight against inflation, a monster in the economy once the Prime Minister dubbed as the "main enemy to the country". And they attribute the failure to the government's decision to retail the wheat through the kebelle distribution networks. There have been debates within the government so that policymakers could change their mind and course on the mode of distribution. Those who argued in favour of wholesale distribution seem to have their moment now.

The federal government is now in the process of importing the third round of 150,000tn wheat worth 69 million dollars from the same supplier as in the past, who is ironically selected with no process of public bidding, claims gossip. These shipments are due to arrive in a few weeks' time, after those at the MoFED have signed the contract with the supplier, perhaps next week, gossip disclosed.

Although there will be a small amount left for the kebelles  to distribute as part of the welfare package, the bulk of it will be sold on a wholesale basis to big businesses who are expected to sell it off down the retail channel. And Eleni G. Medhin (PhD), the Czarina of the state controlled commodities exchange, will have complete control in the auctioning of the latest consignment, gossip disclosed. Whether or not she will set her own floor price or accept the 350 Br per quintal the Grain Trade Enterprise has been using is not clear.

What is clear from the gossip corridors in town is that those advocating for the federal government to change its course in distributing imported grain have finally prevailed over those who were fans of the states meddling in the business of retailing.

 
 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 

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