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Now is a world abuzz with talk about either
corporate "bailouts" or fat economic "stimulus
packages". The process has also become a way to see
the wealth of nations; compare America's close to
787 billion dollars (150 times the Ethiopian federal
budget for the current fiscal year) in an economic
stimulus programme approved by its congress on
Friday, February 10, 2009, to Australia's 41.5
billion dollars approved by its parliament last week
to Britain's 29.8 billion dollars and Germany's 65
billion dollars.
The poor countries in places such as Africa have
little to do by way of injecting money into the
economy; they should be happy with the mere fact
that the oil price has declined so much that current
prices of 40 dollars per barrel could feel as
God-sent economic relief. With imported inflation
obliterating their gains in economic growth, what
would have happened to these countries had the price
of international oil kept going at the rate of 140
dollars per barrel?
Ethiopia's is a case in point; partly blamed on
imported materials; inflation had reached a
historical high of close to 60pc on food prices a
few months ago. Despite the controversy on who might
have actually profited out of the price hike - the
government consistently claiming the farming
community made the largest earnings - there was a
pretty good deal consensus that the urban poor,
particularly those in the fixed income bracket have
been the largest losers. That explains why the
federal government spent over 100 million dollars in
buying wheat from a trader whose office is in
London.
The whole idea of importing wheat into the country
and distribute it cheap was to fend off both
inflation and expectation of it; while on the other
hand it was to provide social relief to the urban
poor. How much have these objectives been met is
open for debate. Whether or not inflation has
subsided depends who you may talk to. For instance,
the macroeconomic team of the country - comprising
the Prime Minister, his chief economic advisor, the
ministers of Trade and Industry (MoTI) and Finance
and Economic Development (MoFED), as well as the
governor of the central bank - says prices have
indeed stopped their upward spiral. That is not what
those at the Central Statistics Agency say; their
data for the past six months show an unabated trend
of inflation growth.
There are those who would argue that the imported
wheat in two rounds in the past has had little
impact in the fight against inflation, a monster in
the economy once the Prime Minister dubbed as the
"main enemy to the country". And they attribute the
failure to the government's decision to retail the
wheat through the kebelle distribution networks.
There have been debates within the government so
that policymakers could change their mind and course
on the mode of distribution. Those who argued in
favour of wholesale distribution seem to have their
moment now.
The federal government is now in the process of
importing the third round of 150,000tn wheat worth
69 million dollars from the same supplier as in the
past, who is ironically selected with no process of
public bidding, claims gossip. These shipments are
due to arrive in a few weeks' time, after those at
the MoFED have signed the contract with the
supplier, perhaps next week, gossip disclosed.
Although there will be a small amount left for the
kebelles to distribute as part of the welfare
package, the bulk of it will be sold on a wholesale
basis to big businesses who are expected to sell it
off down the retail channel. And Eleni G. Medhin
(PhD), the Czarina of the state controlled
commodities exchange, will have complete control in
the auctioning of the latest consignment, gossip
disclosed. Whether or not she will set her own floor
price or accept the 350 Br per quintal the Grain
Trade Enterprise has been using is not clear.
What is clear from the gossip corridors in town is
that those advocating for the federal government to
change its course in distributing imported grain
have finally prevailed over those who were fans of
the states meddling in the business of retailing.
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