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Agenda  

A supply shock has hit the milk market. All players in the production and supply of the product have been adversely affected by the boomerang effect of the economic problems in this industry. Consumers have not been left out of the vicious cyclical events, as Wudineh Zenebe, special to Fortune highlights.

Boomerang Supply Shock Hits Milk Market

 

A mother of twins, Hana Teklehaimanot, is a resident of Kebele 36 around Ourael Church in Bole District. Until recently, every morning she had been buying a litre of milk at four Birr from Berta Cattle Ranch for her five-month old babies. However, her monthly budget for the purchase of milk has now shot up because her supplier has increased the price by 50pc. Of course, she is not happy about this but has no option but to buy the milk as her babies have not yet begun taking other kinds of food.

 

From a combined income of 1,500Br, the family pays 550 Br monthly for house rent. Hanna struggles to cover her remaining expenses with the balance, which is being eroded by the increasing prices of almost all supplies.

 

“Life has become unbearable,” she says. “I am not sure how long I am going to continue spending 12 Br every day on milk only.”

 

It is not the price alone that bothers her so much. Often, she cannot even get as much as two litres of milk if she does not get to her suppliers early enough because the demand for the product is great.

 

“That forces me to pay a hard won extra two Birr,” she bemoans.

 

Small kiosks and big supermarkets in the metropolis have been hit by a supply shock of late. Some grocers even got to the extent of rationing supplies to two tetra milk packets per shopper.
 

This unfortunate phenomenon is attributed to a significant decrease in supply. The cattle rearing farmers - in both towns and rural areas - blame the current shortage to the scarcity of fodder and hay for their cows.

 

One such supplier, who is definitely feeling the pinch, is Hailemariam Beyene, a rancher in Gebre Guracha area of Selale, 170Km north of Addis Abeba in the Oromia Regional State. A father of six, he has 25 cattle, 20 of which are hybrid cows that produce 25 litres of milk each. Hailemariam has been supplying Shola Milk Enterprise at 3.5 Br per litre.

 

“My deliveries have not been consistent though in the past six months,” he told Fortune.

 

Especially beginning from February this year, the volume he obtains from his cows has significantly decreased due to the lack of pastoral lands following the failure of Belg rains.

 

The animal feed that the enterprise provides Haliemariam does not solve the problem. It has, rather, diminished in quantity and increased in price. He has therefore had to sell off seven of his hybrid cows for an amount he considers as well below their actual worth.

 

“I sold them for 4,000 Br yet they would go for 7,000 to 10,000 Br in normal circumstances,” he said.

 

He is not the only one to express disappointment. Most farmers in his neighborhood are forced into selling their cattle before they lose weight and, therefore, value.
 

Owners of Berta Cattle ranch also complain about the short supply.

 

“To purchase 50qts of animal feed, we waited for 15 days. And we paid 13,499 Br,” says one of the owners. “It wouldn’t surprise me if  the price of milk hit an all time high.”

 

The milk refrigeration station at Shola Milk Enterprise in Selale gives fodder to 823 farmers, who, in turn, supply it with their milk production. Six months ago, a quintal of first grade fodder sold for 156 Br. However, currently second grade fodder goes for as much as 320 Br. This has had a boomerang effect on the farmers who have drastically slashed the amount of milk they now supply.

 

“From the 5000-7000lts daily supply of milk six months ago, we now get as little as 1500 lts,” said Tamru Tolcha, head of the station.

 

The price of fodder rose following dwindling supplies from grain milling factories.
 

KOJJ, a flour factory sells Frushika, an animal feed, for 276-300 Br. The price was 100-110 Br just a few months ago. Flour factories blame this escalation in price on the soaring wheat prices and scarcity of the grain.

 

 “It is because the supply of wheat has decreased that fodder has become expensive,” Teshome Kassa, shareholder and general manager of commercial department of KOJJ, told Fortune.

 

There has been a global rise in the price of wheat, which locally has peaked to 565 Br.

 

KOJJ’s has a daily milling capacity of 1,400 quintals of wheat, yet its current output stands at 300 to 400 quintals a day, a more than three fold decrease. This has been the result not only of shortages, but also of the present power cuts.
 

According to Teshome, a mere 25pc of a quintal of the cereal is used in the making of animal feed. The inadequate total supply therefore pushes prices to the roof.

 

A study conducted by Tefera Abraha, a senior Urban Agriculture expert, indicated that the aggregate annual supply of milk in Addis Abeba is 64.5 million litres per year, while the biological demand of milk is over five times this amount. The discrepancy between the demand and the supply is notable in the city for all milk brands.

 

Shola, for instance, used to supply 20,000 to 25,000lts of milk three months ago. Its production capacity was reduced to 15,000 in May.
 

For 10 days of the month, there is a power blackout, which forces the factory to minimize production.
 

“Without power, one cannot refrigerate the milk,” says Desalegn Tilahun, general manager of Shola.
 

Shola also gets raw milk supplies from close to 1,000 farmers in northern Shoa and Ada’a Liben Milk Producers Association. The 10,000lts supply from Ada’a Liben has now decreased by 3,000lts, according to Desalegn.

 

In rural parts of the country, household production of milk has reportedly diminished due to the failure of Belg rains. A rise in the price of a bond of hay from 10 Br to 25 Br has become unsustainable among farmers.
 

Moreover, factories producing animal feed apply various ingredients, such as salt and oil, to prepare nutritious animal feed. These ingredients have also been subject to rising prices.
 

Hanna represents the middle-income group of urban dwellers badly affected by the all-round increase in the price of basic commodities and therefore cannot properly plan for expenses.

In April 2008, the overall inflation rate was 19.9pc. The headline inflation (on food items) was even worse at 26.6pc, significantly mounting from 16.9pc at the same time last year.

BY Wudineh Zenebe
special to Fortune

 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 

 

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