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Fortune: Currently, there is a rise in the cost of
living and inflation in Ethiopia. Do you have data
on these issues? What does it indicate?
Samia: The rise in the cost of living and inflation
is global. It is not unique to Ethiopia. The data we
have simply shows that prices, especially of
cereals, are rising rapidly. Therefore, we believe
that the increase in the prices of cereals is the
determinant factor for the inflation. We can split
the data on inflation into two categories: that on
food items and on non-food ones. The non-food aspect
is stable, in fact very stable. On the other hand,
inflation on food items is getting higher and higher
from month to month, especially on cereals like
barley, wheat and teff. We realise that it is
a global phenomenon.
Q: There are two different ideas concerning the
sources of inflation. One is that inflation is
imported and the other suggests that it is a result
of factors within the Ethiopian economy. What do
your records indicate in this regard?
Both are contributing factors. As we all know, the
price of oil has increased globally and this applies
to Ethiopia, too. But, with regard to supply of
commodities, products are readily available in
market places. Nonetheless, prices are constantly
rising.
Q: What methodologies do you use for collecting data
on inflation? How much
human and material resources do you have to carry
out accurate assessments of such economic matters?
We refer to the price data. There are 119 markets
across the country. In Addis alone, we have 12
markets that we consider as spots for collecting
data. We have staff who work only on price data,
compiling what we refer to as the Consumer Price
Index. This index shows the prices consumers pay for
commodities. So, our people go to these last spots
(markets) and collect data. For each commodity,
there are three quotations from the market, the
price during transactions; the price supplied by the
traders and that given by the consumers. Therefore,
the price of each commodity has three reference
points. To get these consumer prices, we follow
internationally recommended procedures. We conduct a
Household Expenditure Survey, which follows the
pattern of household consumption. We take data on
how much different households spend, or their
expenditure weight.
Q: Mostly, we hear that your agency undertakes
population and housing census. Do you have manpower
skilled enough to carry out assessments specifically
on such economic issues like inflation? I’m
particularly interested in their professional
background.
Those who collect the data mostly have diplomas from
colleges. We have about 200 professional
statisticians in the 25 branch offices all over the
country. In each branch, we have three to four of
them. Different departments do assessments on
different sectors, such as agriculture, industry,
population and price. This is how we are organized.
Q: Do you have branch offices in each region?
Of course, we have. In fact, in some big regions, we
have more than one, but in each region there is at
least one branch office.
Q: You have told me that the agency has different
departments responsible for assessments on specific
issues. Which department/s does/do a survey on price
increase and inflation?
The Household Income, Expenditure and Welfare Issues
Department.
Q: Are some other departments, like Agriculture,
involved in this issue because it has something to
do with cereals and other agricultural produce?
No, each department has its own special subject
matter to deal with.
Q: Do you have a department that deals with
macro-level economic issues, such as government
expenditure, the amount of money in circulation, the
banking system and other related matters?
No, we don’t have that department. However, we
collect information on such issues as secondary
data. We get this data from the banks and other
government institutes that deal with those issues
and we compile it as statistical abstract, which
has everything in it.
Q: Let’s talk about issues concerning your agency.
Some people question the integrity and credibility
of the documents you release. They suggest that the
documents only reflect what the government wants,
that they may even be cooked data. What is your
reaction to that?
To my knowledge, all statistics agencies in the
world are government institutes. Why should there be
an exception when to comes to Ethiopia? Why is
Ethiopia’s
situation always questioned? We are professionals,
we are statisticians and we have ethics. Why do we
need to cook data when other countries do not? I
don’t know why, but when it comes to Ethiopia, there
is always this problem of mistrusting everything to
do with the government. Everywhere you go, whether
in Africa or America, the data office is a
government one. You know, our methodology and
procedures are for public consumption. We follow all
internationally recommended systems. All government
institutes and international organizations,
including UN agencies, use our data and they are
happy with it. Why is it being questioned? I don’t
know. We prepare various data in various areas.
Which is cooked? Can anyone come with an example and
say this is cooked? For example, the inflation, as
we see it, is getting higher and higher. Our data
also shows the same thing. If our data suggested
that there is no inflation, then there would be
reason to suspect us. The same is true of
commodities. If you go to the markets, various
produces are available but the prices of these keep
rising and that is what our data show. Therefore, I
don’t see why people pose such questions. They don’t
even have any grounds for this.
Q: As you say, there is this increase in the prices
of commodities, especially of food items. At the
same time, the agricultural productivity in Ethiopia
is said to be on the rise. I’m sure you have some
documents about agricultural output, but the
question, is do you collect the data using your own
people on the ground, or do you get it from woreda
(district) officials who may give exaggerated
statistics, to their own credit?
Again, we have professionals over there, we have
branch offices and we have our own methodologies. We
collect our own data and compile it. Then, we
produce a document, but they produce their own data,
and also our figures are very different.
Q: You mean, from the figures provided by woredas?
Yes, even with those from the regions.
Q: Can you explain this difference a bit further,
mentioning some specific cases?
Well, I don’t know their exact details because they
don’t report as we do. But, we know that their
figures are different from ours. We prepare such
documents every year and we publish them. They don’t
do that. Nevertheless, whenever we hear from the
mass media that such woredas produced this or that
data, we realize their figures are different.
Q: So theirs are higher than yours?
Much higher. That is, at woreda and regional levels.
Q: What about at federal level, for example, within
the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development?
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development
use our data because as it provides official
statistics, either for policy matters or everything
else. However, when it comes to the regions and
woredas, we hear them mentioning some figures,
which, if you add them up, are not at all comparable
to ours.
Q: Yes, I heard they report more than actual
production because they want to be considered as
leaders of better performing areas.
Well…, we don’t know that. Probably they don’t have
good methodologies. That is what we say. We have the
skill and use the best methodology here. We know how
to measure and how to do it. In their case, they
don’t have that methodology and we are trying to
collaborate with them. We recently had consultative
meetings with all regions in an attempt to work
together to train their people so that they can
gather good statistics. Therefore, we say one of
their problems is the lack of capacity.
Q: That being the case, your data still shows that
production in Ethiopia is increasing.
That is what the government has already reported;
the economy is growing by about 10pc, and it mostly
is a result of agriculture.
Q: Do you think the measures the government is
taking to tackle inflation and price hikes are
appropriate and enough?
All we do is provide collected statistical data - on
whatever matter it may be - using methodologies that
are international accepted. We organize the data and
publish it. In this case, we provide the government
and all interested parties with raw data about the
inflation and the rising cost of living, or
commodity prices. That is our mandate.
Q: You don’t have people who do analysis on the
data, or trace the causes of the problems and
suggest solutions?
We don’t analyse the data and recommend solutions or
measures. That is not our mandate. Government has
its own people, experts and policy makers who use
our data and do all that you have mentioned. So, we
cannot say these are the right solutions or those
are the wrong solutions. That is a task for the
government people or the economists who use our data
for their purposes.
Q: Let me take you out of this context. Do you have
any data about the impact of the recent power outage
on the overall economy of the nation?
No.
Q: You have not done any assessment on this?
No, we have not.
Q: Are you planning to do one?
Not really.
Q: Months back, you undertook a population and
housing census. When do you expect to release the
findings?
Maybe in the next two to three months. We don’t have
an exact date, though. But we will try to finalize
it probably in that time.
Q: More than five years back, I think, you made a
projection about the population growth for this
time, or for around this time. Comparing your
projection to the statistics you have gathered
through the latest census, do you see, or anticipate
either a variation or a concurrence?
I don’t expect any drastic change. It would be
within the range of our projection. I don’t see any
big variation because in between, we have taken so
many different surveys, like the Demographic and
Health Survey (DHS), surveys on fertility rate,
among other things. They don’t really show that big
a difference.
Q: What range of variation do you expect?
Well, that I cannot say now. However, people ask me,
“is it going to be 90 or 80 (million)?” To that I
say no.
Q: You don’t expect such a difference?
I don’t expect anything like that. For example, the
population of Addis during the 2002 census was 2.1
million. Our projection for the current time is that
it would not exceed three million. Therefore, I
don’t expect a big variation here. The latest census
result would be close to that, plus or minus.
Q: But certainly, it is not going to be minus?
That I cannot say. Nevertheless, it should be within
this range. People I meet say Addis Abeba’s
population is about six or five million. I say no,
definitely not.
Q: What is the exact projected figure of Ethiopia’s
population for the current time?
For July 2007, that is when we did the latest
census, it is about 77 million.
Q: So it is almost close to 80 million?
We will see that when our document is released.
However, people say 90. I don’t know where they got
this number.
Q: Which region contributes the largest percentage
to Ethiopia’s population growth rate?
I cannot tell you that precisely. But the bigger
regions contribute larger percentages and the
smaller regions contribute less.
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