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There is a joke circulating around town that
demonstrates the level of desperation felt
by the public due to the ever rising cost of
living.
It goes like this: One of the eight children
of an old man, who depends on a 180 Br
monthly pension pay out, asked his father
for 10 Br. The father questioned the young
boy's need for the money.
"There is a magic show at our school,"
responded his son. "I was told the entrance
fee is only 10 Br."
The old man could hardly understand why his
son was interested in watching the show.
Asks the father: "Why would you need to go
to school to see a magician? Here I am. My
ability to juggle my meagre income to
support my family is nothing less than
magic."
For many people, particularly those
Ethiopian urbanities in the fixed income
bracket, surviving today's runaway inflation
is as good as a miracle. This is what Robert
Zoellick, president of the World Bank,
described as the daily struggles, sacrifices
and survival tactics waged by close to two
billion people across the world. This
represents two thirds of the world
population; reactions in certain countries -
such as Haiti, Egypt, and Burkina Faso -
have become violent and bloody.
For emerging countries across the world,
bills on the imports of oil and food
constitute over half of their annual
spending. The era of cheap food in the world
is over, according to analysts.
That is very true of any household in
Ethiopia where food claims 60pc of the total
spending. Many in Ethiopia are unfortunate
enough to be in this seemingly endless
struggle. The price of food in has jumped to
26.6pc in April 2008, according to the
Consumer Price Index (CPI) released in May
by the Central Statistical Agency (CSA).
Ethiopia's annual inflation of 17pc in 2007
was the highest figure registered in 10
years, and in Africa, with the exception of
in Guinea and Zimbabwe, according to the IMF.
For a country that spends close to 2.1
billion dollars annually paying for its
imported oil, the forecast by Goldman Sachs,
a well known international consulting firm,
that the price of oil will go as high as 200
dollars per barrel, does not spell good
news.
The response from Ethiopia's policymakers
came much too late. Unlike in the past,
where they used to argue - rather
passionately - that inflation was a result
of growth thus could only be fended off
through accelerated growth, now they have
declared it to be the monstrous scourge they
are determined to fight.
As belated as these responses are, they were
too few to bring a marked difference.
Despite an increase in broad money supply by
an average of 20pc a year, thus begging for
the central bank's bold move in tightening
interest rates, those in the political
establishment preferred to blame and harass
businesses instead, with a temptation to
control prices and intensify expensive
subsidies on edible oil and wheat, in order
to cap inflation. They even decided to ban
exports of grains such as teff, a frantic
measure not peculiar to Ethiopia but adopted
by several other countries in Asia and Latin
America.
This will again prove to be a wrong move,
for the inflation that is rocking the world
is not temporary, caused by supply shock
that could be met in a short period; and
speculation that may bring about a turn
around soon. If you were to ask Muhammed
Yunus, managing director of Grameen Bank,
for all indications, the rise in commodity
prices is here to stay. Increase in demand
in emerging economies will likely continue
to push prices upward before the world
begins to produce enough to satisfy a global
appetite for more.
It is sad to see that the central bank is
not independent enough to be able to use
monetary policy instruments at its disposal,
even if it meant to go against the interest
of the executive branch up at Arat Kilo,
which understandably wants to continue
maintaining one of the lowest interest rates
in Africa, in a bid to boost growth.
The fact that a bill now in Parliament for
amending the founding laws of the central
bank proposes to make it answerable to the
Prime Minister is depressing to those who
would like to see the National Bank of
Ethiopia (NBE) remain a credible independent
institution, free from the meddling of the
politicians. But this is a matter of
ideological importance to a centre-left
government, such as the one at the helm of
Ethiopia's political power.
Nevertheless, neither is the governor
competent enough to keep the nation's vault
safe from swindlers who have succeeded in
selling it stones and irons in the name of
gold.
Whatever it is that policymakers try to do
to bring down inflation, and stabilize
prices, members of the public have to show a
profound shift of attitude of life in
general, and towards work in particular.
The working culture in Ethiopia lacks so
much, to say the least. Many, particularly
in major cities, seem to have a weird
understanding of the job world: They would
rather work at their convenience and not
when their respective job requires them to
do so.
Productivity - measured by quality, time and
cost - has become an alien concept. A series
of excuses are thought to be good enough to
justify failures to accomplish tasks, and a
round of blame game to avoid
responsibilities is rather a norm. Demand
from supervisors for quality work delivered
on time is often taken as violation of
labour rights, whereas employees' failures
to live up to expectations is much accepted
and tolerated.
Lack of labour discipline and poor
productivity, in terms of both quality and
volume, is costing the economy a great deal.
Where there is widespread inefficiency, it
is the end user that pays for it. It all
adds up in the cost variable, and
contributes to the galloping inflation.
Companies, whether they are public or
private, do suffer from an unhealthy high
turnover of staffs, many unable to keep
employees for even a year. There appears to
be dissatisfaction within the labour market
that go beyond monetary rewards, thus
resulting in a high degree of mobility.
The World Economic Forum identified poor
work ethics in national labour force as one
of the top five problematic factors in doing
business in Ethiopia, according to surveys
conducted in 2007. Interestingly,
respondents to this survey did not consider
inflation (ranked 13 out of 14 factors) as
much a problem as labour rowdiness and poor
productivity.
Neither is the relation between employers
and labour rated favourably: Of the 128
countries included in the survey, Ethiopia
was ranked 113, indicating how unproductive
this relationship becomes.
No doubt this pushes many of the start-up
companies either to perform below capacity
or to shutdown within short periods of their
opening. Close to 60pc of companies exit
from the market within three years of their
founding, due to labour related
un-productivity, reveals a doctoral thesis
by Mulu Gebreeyesus, from Goteborg
University, School of Business, Economics
and Law, which surveyed the investment
behaviour of Ethiopian manufacturing firms
using data from 1996 to 2003.
Even in rural Ethiopia, where 80pc of the
population depends on subsistence farming,
agriculture accounts only for 40pc of
output, according to another study conducted
in 2006.
The net result cannot be pleasant news:
Ethiopia as a nation remains to be one of
the least competitive countries, even by
African standard, if we go by Africa's
Competitive Report produced by the World
Economic Forum. In 2004, Ethiopia was ranked
19 out of the 25 economies in sub-Saharan
Africa. The global ranking is more
depressing: Ethiopia was among the 12 least
competitive economies in the world.
Yet, there appears to be a climate of
acceptance as if this is Ethiopia's fate.
Many seem to have resigned themselves to
accepting their situation of deprivation,
and are less motivated to change it through
effort and hard work. If the going is
getting tough, several are those who tend to
rather manage their dreadful conditions
(poverty) by becoming those willing to
measure up to the volume and quality of
their work.
The culture of shortcuts has become
terrifyingly overwhelming. |