Who would have thought, three years ago, that a loose electoral front in the form of a Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD), put together barely eight months ahead of the run-up to the May 2005 national elections, would cause the most contested elections in the country’s political history? Who could have imagined that cold water would cool the excitement enjoyed by the Revolutionary Democrats on the very next day following the rally of hundreds of thousands of their supporters at Meskel Square in the first weekend of May 2005, when a little over a million people swarmed the same square to support their electoral challengers, the CUD?

Who would have thought that the enthusiasm and the subsequent turnout of voters in Addis Abeba and elsewhere in the country three years ago would re-ignite the political passion of the citizenry? Or that the massive votes granted to opposition parties would shake the ruling party from its core? Or even that the daring decision by the Revolutionary Democrats to concede defeat in Addis Abeba, where voters penalized them for their neglect of the capital during their first two terms and for the mistakes they committed while administrating it?
 

These surprises Prime Minister Meles Zenawi reportedly described at the time as a “rude awakening” for his party. Judging by the latest events in the local and by-elections held last week, and continued today, there are more surprises in store than people are prepared to admit.

Beyond emotional reactions, and indeed from the perspective of a keen observer, last week’s elections held across the country (with the exception of the Somali Regional State) and particularly in Addis Abeba, were yet another bolt from the blue example of the electorates’ power to choose who to put in office.
 

True, last week’s and today’s elections were a far cry from the hotly contested ones three years ago. The campaigns by the competing parties, some of whom decided to jump off the wagon at the last minute, were definitely below par, if not paternalistic. Never mind the all too familiar top-down preaching tactics used by the Revolutionary Democrats as they give statistics and progress reports. And none of these campaigns were broadcast live, as the case was in 2005, hence there was regrettably little incentive for the electorate to fire themselves up.

On the Election Day, April 13, at 11.00am, there were no long queues of people waiting to cast their vote - not even the whole day. In fact, the capital looked more like a ghost town, particularly in the afternoon as a huge number of youth and Addis Abeba’s elite chose instead to indulge in their passion and watch the European Premier League game between Arsenal and Manchester. The large crowd at Meskel Square had gathered not to show support or allegiance to a party as in May 2005, but rather to follow the soccer match from the mega Sony Screen where the game was being transmitted. Miniature crowds also converged in the various restaurants and kiosks across the capital to watch the same match. 
 

Scouting through these various outlets in the capital on Sunday and on the following days to find out the number of people who had actually voted - for whatever contesting party - was a kind of daunting task. Many of those who stayed away from polling stations and refused to ink their fingers claimed to have given up on the idea that electoral gambles could bring about a change of government. Yet others still were frustrated by the nasty feud within the opposition bloc, thus expressed dismay at the apparent lack of choice on who to elect into power.

These misgivings nevertheless overshadow interesting revelations by the keen observer on the figures on the electorate: In Addis Abeba, about 200,000 more people had registered for these elections than for the highly contested ones held in 2005. On a national level, close to one third of the electorate had registered now, adding half a million more people to the voter’s roll of 25.5 million three years ago. The number of polling stations was increased to 42,000 -  up from the 33,000 prepared then - thus costing the federal government 100 million Br.              

These elections, marred by allegations of intimidations and subsequent boycotts by opposition parties such as the United Ethiopian Democratic Front (UEDF) and Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM), has results due in a few weeks, which will be released by the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), the only authoritative source for data on electoral information. Preliminary results pasted on the walls on polling stations on the following days suggest, however, that the Revolutionary Democrats have enjoyed a landslide victory in Addis Abeba, recovering from their electoral wounds a few years ago. The earlier overwhelming rejection of the Revolutionary Democrats by Addis Abebans was what they finally and rightly described as “protest votes” as opposed to endorsement of opposition policies over theirs.

Whether or not their opponents admit it, Revolutionary Democrats have numbers they could feel good about. Take, for instance, voters in Merkato, the epicentre of resistance in the aftermath of May 2005 elections: 4032 people cast their votes for them in Kebelle 27 of Addis Ketema District as compared to the 351 votes Ayele Chamiso’s CUD got. In Kebelle 16/17 of the same District, 2301 voters showed their allegiance to the EPRDF, in sharp contrast to the 256 votes cast for the CUD. These are far from isolated and anecdotal cases.

Judging from these preliminary results, it becomes obvious that the 14 vacant positions in parliament that CUD candidates declined to take three years ago will be filled by candidates fielded by EPRDF. None of the independent candidates were popular enough to sway, such as Ashebir W. Giorgis (MD), the most embattled football official, or Molla Zegeye, a lawyer jailed for many years after being accused of involvement in atrocities committed by the military regime whose officials he later on defended in a court of law; none were popular enough to sway votes from the incumbent.   

That the Revolutionary Democrats would sweep these elections was obvious. They had started to work on it immediately after their electoral embarrassment in a manner that was well designed and orchestrated, while their political rivals immersed themselves in a bitter internal struggle to the confusion and utter frustration of their supporters here and abroad. The Revolutionary Democrats have good reasons to believe that their efforts to neutralise urban protests, due to series of public consultations from teachers to youth to residents, if not the instructors and professors of the academia, has paid electoral dividends.

Indeed, these were not elections about fierce contests among political parties, for many of the opponents of the Revolutionary Democrats knew all too well that they were just in the race to participate. One of the electoral games the incumbent played was to recruit, earlier on, as many members as it could so that it would have the logistical ability to dispatch them to the electoral battle. That each regional council decided to have local administrative units, each having 100 elected kebelle officials, as opposed to 15 in the past, did much to work against the opposition.  Even combined, they were not able to match the all mighty EPRDF as they fielded a total of 100,000 candidates in sharp contrast to over 3.7 million runners on the Revolutionary Democrat’s platform.

This is certainly a logistical nightmare for any party without having the advantage of being an incumbent, if not a drain on their financial resources. If the EPRDF were to pay 100 Br to each of its candidate for transport allowance during the campaign, it would spend over 350 million Br for the nearly 400 million candidates it has got elected. Which opposition party in Ethiopia can go that deep into its pocket? It seems that the Revolutionary Democrats have learnt one or two lessons from their electoral defeat a few years ago, and a few more from the United States where the re-demarcation of electoral boundaries has a lot to do in determining who should be in the White House.

Far from the electoral battle waged by the political parties, the biggest surprise is the increase in voter turnout, as disclosed by the Electoral Board; over 90pc of those registered to vote have indeed cast their votes at a national level, while this figure for the capital is over 80pc. Sample visits conducted by reporters from this newspaper in Addis Abeba, Adama (Nazareth) and Awassa confirm this claim as each of the kebelles that they sampled had a turnout of between 70pc to 80pc.

This in itself is a big statement; who would have thought that a capital that bitterly rejected a political party would have shown such level of turn out only after three years? Whether or not there were choices, why didn’t voters demonstrate their protest - if they still are protesting - by shunning away from polling stations? Shouldn’t voters display their displeasure with the EPRDF ­- if they are displeased - not only by voting for another party but also by boycotting it; and embarass its leaders? Are voters sending a signal that their confidence in the electoral process has been restored?

Well, the electorate voted for various reasons, and many are the reasons for those who did not. Some said they voted for the incumbent out of a lack of choice, while others claim that they had now voted for their own interests, unlike in the past where they made their decisions on the basis of their emotions. Understandably, the Revolutionary Democrats worked hard and invested so much to grab these votes by appealing to voters to consider their track record in attempting to fulfil the provisions that people are desperately in-need: housing, employment, good services, infrastructural expansion, and business opportunities for small businesses. If indeed voters believed them, and that would be part of the reasons why they tuned out to vote, albeit in quiet manner, this, in itself, is a major victory for the Revolutionary Democrats.

It is up to them to use Ethiopia’s unending surprises wisely and not ruin it once again as they have done several times in the past.