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For once, Ethiopia’s political discourse is
showing a departure from its usual hardcore
political issues over buzzwords such as
unity, diversity, federalism, secession,
territorial integrity, access to the sea . .
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Today’s discourse - whether in Parliament,
at the Council of Ministers or in the power
corridors of line ministries - is very much
focused on how much household purchasing
power has diminished lately. The term
inflation has become as familiar as a
household name. For any keen observer of
history, it is understandable if
policymakers are on their guard against a
rising cost of living for they had the
ability to bring to power people like Adolph
Hitler in the 1930s Germany.
Exploring a course of action to balance
growth and at the same time fight upward
pressure in prices is what bothers
politicians as well ordinary citizens. It is
refreshing.
But if Ethiopians feel they are the only
nation in the world to have experienced
escalating prices, they could find solace
from a statement made by a woman in
Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: “You wonder if
it’s the government or the businesses that
are behind the price hikes.”
She is from a country where there was a riot
against increased prices. Others have gone
through bloody violence, such as in Egypt
where two got killed last week during a
protest provoked by a 35pc increase on the
price of bread and 26pc increase in that of
cooking oil. Even in Italy, consumers went
marching against the inflated prices of
spaghetti.
From Ecuador to France to China,
international prices on basic commodities
are going mad. A recent study by the UN
Agriculture and Food Organization (FAO),
revealed that the cost of food jumped by
23pc in 2007, when compared to the previous
year, while the price of grain went up by
42pc, cooking oil by 52pc and dairy by 80pc.
Dwindled national reserves, bad weather and
poor harvests are blamed for increases in
prices.
Consumer price indexes are at an all time
high from the United States (four per cent
since 1990) to China’s 7.1pc recorded in
January this year, the highest in more than
a decade. Chinese Prime Minister, Wen Jiabo,
declared that fighting the scourge of
inflation is “a top priority” for his
government.
His country is simply one of the 37 across
the world that suffered from food crises
beginning December 27; 20 of them have
enforced various degrees of price controls.
The response from the Revolutionary
Democrats in power in Ethiopia in fighting
inflation is mixed, in the same way that
they have a mixed-bag of policies on various
issues stretching from building “white
capitalism” to forming a “developmental
state”.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is fond of
achieving growth modelled along Taiwan
(double digit growth and single digit
inflation) as opposed to the South Korean
scenario he is confronted with – double
digit growth eaten up by double digit
inflation, according to his own assertion at
Parliament.
There are causes for inflation he can do
much about and those he is helpless against.
He has little influence over imported
inflation through commodities the country
buys such as fuel, cooking oil, fertilizer
and chemicals on which its thriving industry
so much depends. The only way his
administration could respond is by enhancing
the country’s revenues from export.
Locally, there is a list of measures it
could take and it does, as much as those it
does not.
For instance, it appears a sensible move on
this administration’s part to take fiscal
measures in lifting various forms of taxes
on imports of commodities such as cooking
oil, sugar and soaps. Although this could
cost the federal government up to half a
billion Birr in revenue a year, that is an
amount with an indirect impact in enhancing
the purchasing power of the consumer
community.
Encouraging the emergence of self initiated
consumer groups that lobby for their rights
and pressurising businesses not only to
bring prices down but also provide a
deserving quality product and services is
also a wise decision, although very late.
It is hard to say as much about its desire
to employ an inefficient state distribution
company in order to channel these
commodities to the cooperatives and through
other group of buyers. Such is a policy
subscribed by a heavy handed state, at the
expense of distorting the market, sometimes
creating artificial shortages as a result of
the incompetence of those trusted by the
state, if not because of their favouritism
and corrupt practices.
Sorting out the imbalances in the market,
with its populist allegation of businesses
taking advantage of the inefficient market
infrastructure, seems where the government
has it all wrong. There appears to exist
irresistible temptation to confuse hoarding
items to a degree that distorts prices or
the functions of cartel, and the legitimate
conduct of businesses in order to speculate.
As a result, there emerges a climate of
business bashing in the air, partly blaming
“greedy” businesses for escalating prices.
The Prime Minister’s strong emphasis in
Parliament did little to make a distinction
between “the lawful majority” and “the few
illegitimate operators” in stopping a
populist mood of pointing fingers at
businesses.
The federal government has now created yet
another taskforce whose members are required
to go around towns and witch-hunt for those
who sell items for “more than a reasonable
amount”. Minister of Trade and Industry
Girma Birru said the government has a trade
practice law, legislated in 2003, which
allows Council of Ministers to go to the
extent of imposing prices on basic
commodities, should it find it appropriate.
Having a piece of legislation is hardly
enough to fix what goes wrong in the market.
Neither does the state need an additional
bureaucracy to discipline the market because
for too long its existing agencies have
failed - perhaps miserably - in protecting
the consumer public on quality, measurement
and public health issues. It would have been
less costly and more effective if the
government were to put its weight behind the
effort to make the standard and quality,
authority as well as various regional health
bureaus, do the monitoring and inspection
works they are created for.
Should people think the newly formed
taskforce is a short-lived desperate attempt
by the state, they should hardly be blamed
for this because in the past such efforts
did not last long. They only created a
temporary fuss, before they went astray.
To be honest, business bashing is
meaningless in practical terms; naturally,
they are there to profit whatever the market
affords to give and is willing to pay. So
long as they do operate within the bounds of
the law, prices should be left to the
wonders of the market that determines prices
on the basis of demand and supply. This is
not to say that practices that distort the
market, robbing it of its competitive nature
through monopoly and cartel, should not be
addressed by the state. In fact, that should
be the preoccupation of the state, writing
laws to avoid such practices and effectively
enforcing them - consistently and uniformly.
The state should use other instruments under
its disposal in its bid to fight inflation.
It could effectively utilize the right
fiscal policies in order to bring
development that boosts income and enhance
social welfare, an area where this
administration has reasonable success.
The shortcomings is always evident in the
monetary policy front which the
administration of Prime Minister Meles is
often reluctant to take, and very slow when
it does. It has a central bank that is
hardly autonomous from the whims of the
powerful executive, snail-paced in its
policy responses, and shy of market forces
which seek signals to make their respective
decisions. It seems it is devoid of its
natural job: fighting inflation.
Take, for instance, the interest rate on
deposits that was adjusted by a percentage
point last June, after remaining at three
per cent for several years. It is a rate
stranger to the concept of movement
according to how much inflation is going up
and down. In an economy where inflation is
in double digit and real interest rate on
lending is negative - as the Prime Minister
once admitted - reluctance to compensate the
huge number of depositors discourages
national savings.
More importantly, though, it makes people
feel that here is a country where the effect
of Robin Hood is in reverse. It is as if the
system takes money away from the majority
that saves from its meagre income only to
pay a few borrowers who repay at a
discounted rate. Perhaps the government
would do well to itself and the economy if
it were to focus on such macro policy
issues.
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