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From the government who subsidises oil products to the consumer suffering from inflation, rising fuel costs are on everyone’s mind. The government’s decision to raise prices across the board has many urbanites who are struggling to get by as it is worried. Ventures into bio-fuel production and seeking alternative strategies to ensure fuel supply seem to be at the whim of international markets, reports WUDINEH ZENEBE, SPECIAL TO FORTUNE.

Losing Energy Contending with Rising Fuel Costs

Realising the drain on foreign currency and following on the success of other countries such as Brazil to capture higher demand from Western countries brought about by increased environmental concern, Ethiopia is pushing alternative fuel production. Four crops have been prioritised for bio-fuel production.

 

Kassech Tedla, 49, is a widow who is one of the poverty-stricken residents  of Addis Abeba. After her soldier husband died in 1992, she has been going through misery to raise her five children.
 

Even after having completed their secondary education four of her children still depend on her. Her elder daughter has left for Lebanon in a bid to support her family that merely depends on the 160 Br that Kassech collects as monthly pension from the government.
 

“My four children do not in any way support the family,” bemoans Kassech. “They, however, expect food on the table.”

 

A recent price adjustment made by the government on fuel products, especially kerosene which has risen to 5.60 Br per litre, has raised eyebrows in her family of five. Kasech frowns when she thinks of the consequences ahead of her.
 

“While I cannot even afford a litre of kerosene, it is inevitable that prices of other goods will increase,” she told Fortune.
 

By her calculations, she spends eight to 10 Br for a litre of kerosene as she buys the commodity from a nearby shop in a small glass bottle rather than in bulk at the gas station.

 

On January 26, 2007, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) increased the subsidised prices on fuel products across the board. Kerosene saw the biggest jump per litre at 3.19 Br, followed by white diesel (2.92 Br), jet oil (2.23 Br),  benzene (1.84 Br), and heavy and light diesel (1.74Br).
 

The adjustment was made in accordance with a decision passed by the Council of Ministers on December 8, 2007, in the regular three-month review of oil prices.
 

However, prior to the latest adjustment, prices have not been reviewed for a year. This has concerned the government which was forced to spend an extra 3.2 billion Br in subsidies.
 

This comes at a time when the international price of oil has skyrocketed to an all-time high, reaching as high as 103 dollars per barrel in January this year. The price was 55 dollars in December 2006 and 95 dollars the same month the following year.
 

On average, international prices of oil have increased by 72.2pc forcing the government to consider a price review after a year, an official at MoTI told Fortune. But the government has not stopped subsidising the oil that is imported to support the lower income earning segment of the society. It subsidises diesel, which is often consumed by large transportation trucks, and kerosene by about 50pc.
 

Jatropa- Resilient to adverse growing conditions, the oil rich plant yields 1,892lt per hectare, more than 10 times that of corn. Variable yields are seen as an obstacle to the plant actively pursued in Asia, especially the Philippines.
   
Castor Seed- Reports of health problems due to its toxic by-product in oil production, ricin, have come from the main producing nations – China, India and Brazil. It is currently widely used as a lubricant.
   
Palm Oil- Among the most widely produced vegetable oils it has come under scrutiny in connection with deforestation. With Malaysia as home to the largest supply, many small-scale plantations are financed through carbon credits.
 

 

Ethanol- In 2006, about 70pc of the 51 billion litre-worldwide production came from the US and Brazil where ‘flex-fuel’ engines can run on mixtures of gasoline and ethanol. Critics claim ozone destructive emissions involved in production outweigh its benefits.

According to the announcement made by MoTI, the subsidy should be put in place for diesel at least for the coming three months as it is time that the agricultural products are brought to the market.
 

An economist, who works for a private consultancy firm, contends that the government should not engage in subsidising oil indefinitely.
 

“It has to stop at a certain point as it eats at foreign currency reserves,” he told Fortune. “However, the government has to first find a sustainable solution because the losers will be the low income group.”

 

An official at the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED) argues that the government has two options to deal with this escalating price hike; short and long term solutions.

At present, upgrading stock capacity while working to develop alternative sources of energy locally is the answer, says the official.
 

According to him, the country would be in a precarious condition if blockage of inland infrastructure or transportation from the ports, complications with ports and further hike in oil prices happen as it does not have sufficient reserves locally.

 

The current stock can only sustain the country for 90 days. To upgrade this capacity, the Ethiopian Fuel Stock Depots Administration under the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MoME) is constructing depots.
 

The other ambitious project embarked upon by the government is shifting to the consumption of bio-fuel instead of fossil fuel.

 

The council of ministers in September 2007 endorsed a bio-fuel development and utilisation strategy that focuses on the development of jatropa, castor seed, palm oil and ethanol, a by-product of sugar production.
 

The strategic document states that the government is conducting studies and explorations of oil in Ethiopia to partially alleviate the cost of transportation in addition to installing road infrastructure.

This budget year, the government has allocated 6.5 billion Br, to install roads all over the country, the largest allowance.
 

The increase in road networks coupled with the international hike in prices has swiftly increased the country’s demand for oil. Currently, Ethiopia spends 87pc of the value of its exports to procure the product. This is why switching to bio-fuel has been considered an indispensable move forward.

Ethiopia has 23.3 million hectares considered suitable for growing jatropa. Including the Saudi tycoon, Sheik Mohammed Hussein Ali Al-Amoudi, close to 25 investors have or are joining the bio-fuel sector. The investors require 50,000hct on average to cultivate plans in large scale agriculture.
 

There is also 700,000hct of land suitable for the plantation of sugarcane in Ethiopia. Currently, Wonji Shoa, Metehara and Finchaa as well as the latest sugar factory under construction, Tendaho, hold 150,000hct.
 

Following the decision passed by the Council of Ministers to utilise blended fuel, MoTI has recently instructed all oil supplying companies to distribute blended fuel.
 

“Ethiopia will register a remarkable growth when it begins to utilise ethanol and bio-fuel,” the economist commented.
 

Poor city residents like Kassech wonder when this bright day will come.

WUDINEH ZENEBE
SPECIAL TO FORTUNE

 
 
 
 
   
 
 
 

 

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