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It is rare for this government to diverge
from its headstrong stalwartness in pursuing
its policies. Going into Somalia just over a
year ago now and staying the course against
great odds and international controversy as
well as its continued proud rhetoric of
independence from foreign manipulation
(Prime Minister Meles Zenawi proudly
proclaims that "Ethiopia is no banana
republic" to be bullied) demonstrate its
determination to do things its own way. This
despite the stakes involved as a direly poor
nation stands up to rich donors that throw
around aid budgets exceeding the total
fiscal expenditure.
Though not as dramatic in rhetoric - given
that economic issues usual retain a dry
formalism - Ethiopia has nonetheless been
equally defiant against the big shots of
international development. Though lauding
the four consecutive years of double-digit
economic growth, the likes of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and others
have urged caution in the current regime's
choice of fairly loose monetary and fiscal
policy. These organisations, which adhere to
the fiscal and monetary austerity found to
dominate policy advice after the Washington
Consensus had firmly taken root in the 80s,
have been urging Ethiopia to tinker with its
strategy in order to perpetuate the success
being enjoyed.
It is doubtful that these development
partners were impressed with the central
bank's move to increase the interest rate by
a mere one per cent in July as the four per
cent nominal interest rate is still
miniscule compared to the raging inflation
standing at 16pc at the time. Neither has
the government chosen to attempt assuaging
the critics of fiscal deficits and credit
being stretched rather liberally by
employing its rhetorical campaigns that it
carries out so effectively to convince them
of its good intentions. Thus far the tone
could be labelled one of defiance.
But that might change to a small degree as
indicated by the Prime Minister's words last
week in a rather strange venue for any
concerted and deliberate effort to alter
course. It was during a meeting with
investors from the grossly disappointing
textile sector attended by the Ministers of
Revenue and Trade and Industry that hints of
acceptance that the current economic policy
regime may be in choppy waters or at the
least a small gamble on continued strong
growth.
Another sign of the increasing, though still
tiny, will of the EPRDF to at least address
criticism in its rhetoric instead of merely
brushing it off as uninformed or against the
country's interests came when Meles had to
answer textile investors' calls for yet more
favouritism in extensions of credit and
export promotion. The unprepared
underperformers in the fledgling industry
who appeared not to have bothered with the
requisite sector analysis and policy review
that a prudent participant would have
conducted before attending the opportunistic
event echoed other groups who stumble along
clumsily in their calls for an overstretched
government to do yet more to support them.
Many businessmen who get the ear of the
Prime Minister, including Diasporas who
pleaded for more tax breaks and duty
omissions in an already attractive
environment in meetings a few months back,
seem to be stuck on the strategy of
requesting more protectionism from an overly
active government. This kind of attitude is
too prevalent in the country as a whole but
is especially troubling from those who are
supposed to be leading the economy into a
ruthless globalised economy where only
cutthroat competitive free market players
can survive. The chains of communism have
not been completely abandoned as the state
is still overly relied upon to provide
solutions stemming from the previously
overly centralised forms of governance that
have dominated Ethiopia for hundreds of
years.
But this time when the textile investors
called for more of the same the reply Prime
Minister showed an acknowledgement that the
vast credit extensions rampant through this
sector along with countless efforts are not
only unpopular but that it would be
dangerous to further them. Where previously
he would have given the generalised
encouragements that more would be done while
avoiding specific promises, Meles was seen
advocating a remotely hands-off stance where
a paternalistic central authority could do
little more to help a sector already rife
with privileges. In a rare moment he seemed
to be saying you, the private sector has to
solve some of your problems (and there many
in the textile industry) on your own.
This brand of rhetoric must be perpetuated,
heightened and backed with concrete action.
In a policy regime with drastically negative
real interest rates investors with the
creditworthiness to get credit are profiting
from the loans themselves as the amount
returned (around seven to nine per cent
nominally) in real rates is less than the
principal demanding on payment schedules.
The question then comes as to who is losing
at the expense of these haves privileged to
get the cheap loans. The answer lies in
those with excess capital to store in banks
at pitiful interest rates. These depositors
who represent a much broader spectrum of the
population than the tin upper crust who are
attaining credit are financing this boom at
their expense. They are also the ones who
can only save their money after purchasing
the necessities whose prices are spiralling
upwards in part as a result of this monetary
choice by the government.
This is bad not only because of the income
distribution implications in a country that
already suffers gross discrepancies between
the upper echelons of rich urbanites
compared to the peasant class (about 84pc of
the country continues to earn incomes
related to agriculture). It is also offers
little incentive for cash to filter into the
formal sector and come into measurable terms
where it can be studied, accounted for and
insightful policies may be constructed based
on the economic signals it gives officials.
Rather, the current regimes shows gives even
more weight to those who consider the large
informal sector the more prudent choice.
Unaccounted for economic activity is not
good news for a government with low tax
collection capacity and fiscal deficits.
For now the regime seems content to continue
in its proudly chosen stance to go against
the advice of the international donor
community and perpetuates a monetary stance
that discourages saving, erodes purchasing
power especially of the urban middle and
lower classes and creates a vicious cycle of
contributions to the inflation that creates
macroeconomic instability and curtails
investment.
Of course, its fiscal policy choices where
the largest-ever federal budget (43.2 bln
Br) is going to massive infrastructure
investments fuelling speculative growth, are
difficult to change. The vested interests
who benefit from the big contracts and the
despicably low base that they must build
upon are formidable repellents to change.
But the more (though not enough)
independence to conduct monetary should be
utilised. The National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE)
should be taking action and raising interest
rates instead of standing flat-footed as
prices escalate and the Birr depreciates
against a distressed dollar.
Hopefully, the Prime Minister's words last
week signal a rethinking of the government's
stubbornness to maintain its controversial
inflationary policy choices. If so, it would
be a bright sign of humbleness if the
rhetoric were to be followed by the more
decentralised economy promotion that he
seemed to be indicating. Even if they were
just words it is encouraging the Prime
Minister feels compelled or at least that it
is in his best interests to engage with
those who disagree with his government's
choices. This should be extended past the
economy.
Only time will tell if the more
standoffishness when more intervention was
requested displayed last week in the textile
meeting will come anything more than an
anomaly. Hopefully, and to the delight of
backers of the free market, it will.
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