For much of the international media, Friday (November 30) midnight was a critical hour in the Ethiopia and Eritrea saga that is as almost eight years old now. One of the two commissions established following the Algiers Agreement signed in December 2000, the Border Commission, decided to windup its business after drawing the controversial border between the two warring nations rather based on geographic coordinates.

This is hardly a surprise for the Commission set a deadline for Friday midnight almost a year ago after the two parties had failed to reach to an agreement to let it mark the border on the ground, according to its ruling made in April 2002. This has understandably led to international speculation that the two countries are at the brink of a renewed military hostility, whose prospect is horrifically grim.

Not so, according to Prime Minister Meles Zenawi who responded early last week to questions from Parliament. In a live televised Parliamentary session he assured the nation that the situation in the north, although delicate, is far from what the international media has been strongly speculating. The Eritrean government's rhetoric of renewed war is different this time around only because it claims it is Ethiopia that is about to launch a military offensive, unlike the past where it used to threaten every September that it would attack in its bid to claim Badme, a border town the Commission awarded to Eritrea.

Meles has affirmed that Ethiopia has no interest to do so.

It is easy to understand why; Ethiopia exists in a rough neighbourhood. It must tread carefully with its foreign policy in a region that is constantly in turmoil. Volatile conflicts rage in almost every direction beyond its borders: There has not been peace in Somalia for 16 years now; while the peace agreement between south and north Sudan remains fragile. Further, the crisis in Darfur now involves a few thousand Ethiopian peacekeepers.

A consensus is beginning to form, both domestically and internationally, that the militant state of Eritrea is the instigator in the majority of these clashes. It has been implicated in Sudan, Somalia and beyond for supplying arms, finance, political support and providing a safe haven for militants openly hostile to Ethiopia. Hardly should it be surprising that four of the five questions in last Tuesday's Parliament session dealt with the foe to the north.

Increasingly, Prime Minister Meles is facing pressure to deal with this troublemaker sooner than later, it appears, as voices in the country declaring that a military standoff with the Eritrean regime is inevitable seem to be gaining momentum. There are those who argue that the mother of all trouble for Ethiopia is in Asmara; leaving it unchallenged makes safe, speedy and permanent withdrawal from Somalia very unlikely. 
 

It is a sticky situation deep with history and offering no obvious solutions. Beyond the war almost eight years ago that left tens of thousands of people to perish, there are complicated national, political and economic issues at stake.
 

The Border Commission is dissolving without a real resolution after seven years of work. This body was supposed to be a temporary way to buy time until a permanent demarcation was reached. It did not happen.

The continuous drain on resources in two of the poorest nations on earth is difficult to justify, though the exact amount will probably never be known as both are quite sensitive to disclose figures.
 

The awkward 'no peace, no war' quagmire that both have been strained to balance in the past eight years may come to an end soon, according to the international press. Most seemed to have overblown the situation though, with more attention accorded to the end of the life of the Border Commission than to the local context. But the official rhetoric has heated up, more so from the always belligerent Asmara.
 

Meles, however, threatened that if instigated the fight would be taken all the way to ensure that the Eritrean government will never have the ability to invade Ethiopia for the third time. It may well mean that he will go all the way to the Eritrean capital.
 

Both countries have put muscle behind their mouths and increased troop levels. As international peacekeepers dwindle, largely due to Eritrea's decision to restrict their activities beginning in October 2005, the two countries still support over 200,000 troops combined along their shared but controversial borders.

Backers of the "war-inevitable" outlook claim that it is only a matter of time until the fighting begins as Eritrea's President Issiass Afeworki has proved to have no interest in constructive peaceful engagement with Ethiopia. The once poster-child of East Africa has fallen out of favour with the West, isolating his young nation from most of the world community. The United States (US) is even considering putting it on the list of states sponsoring terrorists. Ostracism from the international organisations and legitimately recognised powers has pushed Eritrea to seek friends in dangerous places.
 

It has been accused of supporting rebels in countries across the globe and is now suspected of involving with Iran's nuclear programme, home of one of the least friendly regimes to Washington in the world.

The voices claiming that no conflict may be resolved unless this rogue state is first neutralised are getting louder.
 

The kind of low-scale battle Asmara is waging on Ethiopian interests is like a buzzing bee constantly nagging. They have not attacked inside its sovereign borders but prefer to support just about anyone who would impede Ethiopia's progress. Those who recommend a knock-out blow before the bee has a chance to use its stinger are supported by US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Jendayi E. Frazer, who hinted at the need for regime change in Asmara.
 

In spite of all these calls, Meles is proven to be unmoving in his strategies to avoid a military confrontation with Eritrea. Unless major changes come from the Prime Minister or influences become stronger, he appears unwavering from his adherence to concentrating on building the economy, refusing to let other endeavours take precedence.

On this front, the data shows relative success. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in double digits over the past four years has been accompanied by vast improvements in infrastructure, though the country started from a low base. Rampant inflation has shown signs of levelling off but still is a worry for most urbanities.

For whatever setbacks Ethiopia is facing, it is vastly outperforming the smaller Eritrean state that has been growing at below two per cent in the same period. Ethiopia dwarfs its northern neighbour in almost all respects; its 81 million people and almost 12 billion dollar economy vastly exceed Eritrea's five million people and one billion dollars economy; Ethiopia is more sustainable than the latter's dependence on Diaspora taxes.
 

This is what Meles, who sees time on the side of his country, is banking on. He is keen to build a strong and winning economy that will carry the burden of potential military confrontation should it come someday. Waiting it out, the disparity will only grow as confrontation becomes less feasible for Asmara who is now struggling to feed its overgrown military establishment.

The Prime Minister appears unwilling to divert attention and resources from his administration's development plans. He seems to be determined to do anything to avoid a conflict that would require the country to completely mobilise for war.
 

His brand of patience with reliance on growth has worked other places before. One of the major contributors to the downfall of the Soviet Union was the US's ability to sustain its economy while continuing massive expenditures on military build-up. The arms race, deliberately stepped up in the 1980s by Ronald Reagan's administration, had forced the Soviets to devote too much of their resources to weapons spending, leaving their economy to waste. When the Iron Curtain fell in the early 1990s, it revealed an Eastern Bloc in shambles; unfortunately too many miscellaneous arms have found their way around the globe.
 

Though Eritrea is notoriously secretive and restricts information as much as any non-free country in the world, it is understandable to say that it is not in good shape. The constant trickle of refugees into Ethiopia, a very poor country, is good evidence.

The question becomes how long Ethiopia is willing to wait it out and at what cost. Domestic pressure to deal a final blow to Asmara is not strong as the horrors of the previous war are still fresh in the minds of people in both countries. And both countries are too poor to afford yet another round of bloody and costly