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This has been triggered by simmering tensions
between Turkey and Kurdish separatists in northern
Iraq. Analysts are worried about the consequences of
possible incursions by Turkish troops into Iraq. The
Turkish government has sought parliamentary
authority to launch attacks against Kurdish
militants, who have long sought their own
independent homeland.
The amount of oil produced in northern Iraq is actually
very small while the major pipeline linking the
Iraqi town of Kirkuk, just south of the Kurdish
region, with Turkey has been shut for long periods
since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.
But it is fears that the dispute may escalate and
threaten oil output in the wider region - Iraq,
Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia collectively account
for 20pc of global supplies - which have fanned the
price rises. In particular, there are concerns about
potential Kurdish reprisals on an important pipeline
in Turkey, which delivers 700,000 barrels per day
(bpd) from Azerbaijan to the Port of Ceyhan.
The situation in northern Iraq is just one of a
number of geopolitical factors which are causing
uncertainty in the market and helping to push prices
up. Iran's push to acquire nuclear power and, many
believe, nuclear weapons has sparked concerns it
could use its own oil supplies as a bargaining chip
in any future showdown.
Barely-veiled threats from the United States (US),
suggesting that military action remains a live
option, have further accentuated fears.
Militant violence in Nigeria's largest oil-producing
region, where kidnappings of foreign oil workers
have become common, has also served to inflate
prices as has the weak dollar.
IS DEMAND FOR OIL CONTINUING TO SOAR?
Yes. The biggest catalyst for oil's seemingly remorseless
rise has been the simplest economic driver there is:
the balance between demand and supply. Demand is at
an all-time high, fuelled by the continued breakneck
economic expansion of the Indian and Chinese
economies.
With more than a billion people in each country, and
sustained growth rates of eight per cent in India
and 10pc in China, manufacturers and consumers are
sucking in energy at an ever-increasing rate. China
overtook Japan as the world's second-largest
consumer of oil in 2003 and is closing in on the US,
with demand for oil growing at about 15pc a year.
Analysts worry global demand for oil is so intense that
supplies may not keep pace. Demand will rise by an
average of 2.2 million bpd next year, the
International Energy Agency says, compared with the
1.5 million-barrel rise seen in 2007.
It says annual demand will rise two per cent up to 2012,
while other projections suggest demand could soar
from about 90 million bpd to as much as 140 million
over 25 years.
As the leading oil supplier in the world, producers' cartel
OPEC is under constant pressure to do something
about the price bubble. It recently bowed to
pressure to pump more oil, agreeing to raise its
production quotas by 500,000bpd from November 1,
2007.
Reports suggest the move was forced through by Saudi Arabia
and that few other OPEC members either have much
stomach for increasing output or much capacity to
spare. OPEC has said the market is "very well
supplied" with crude and will continue to be so in
the immediate future. It has blamed speculation by
market traders - who can make money by betting on
the future direction of prices - for the continuing
price rises.
Critics of OPEC say it must act more aggressively to bring
prices down.
"The response from OPEC has been pretty poor so far," says
John Roberts, an energy security analyst with
commodities research firm Platt's. "The sentiment in
the market is that it is time for OPEC to increase
production again."
Taking inflation into account, prices are still below
levels seen in late 1980, when a barrel of oil - in
today's prices - was worth more than 101 dollars,
according to the IEA. Back then, costly oil helped
contribute to a recession in the US and similar
fears are resurfacing now.
The Bush Administration has said it is "very concerned"
about current price levels, at a time when the
economy is already expected to slow significantly
next year. High energy prices make life more
expensive for consumers and businesses, having a
knock-on effect on their spending in other areas.
Gasoline prices are hovering not far below the
three-dollar-a-gallon mark in the US, while United
Kingdom (UK) petrol retailers have warned prices
could soon rise above one pound a litre.
But on the other side of the fence, oil giants such as
ExxonMobil and BP are having a wonderful time, while
oil-rich countries are also smiling. Oil wealth has
underpinned President Hugo Chavez's efforts to
reshape Venezuela, allowing him to fund extensive
social programmes and reject US criticism of his
policies. Russia's oil and gas bonanza has
underwritten efforts by President Vladimir Putin to
exert state control over the country's energy
sector.
WHERE WILL PRICES HEAD NEXT?
Many people scoffed when analysts from investment bank
Goldman Sachs said in 2005 that prices could
eventually top 100 dollars a barrel. This now seems
a real possibility, although analysts caution that
the market remains volatile.
"There is every reason to suppose the price could hit 100
dollars," says Platt's John Roberts. "At the same
time, one good thing goes right and the price goes
tumbling back down to 70 dollars or 60 dollars."
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