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For far too long now, the camp of Ethiopia's
opposition has been synonymous with
sloganeering, unable to produce coherent and
a clear ideological platform that
distinguishes it from the ruling party. The
only exception to this rule was a
green-coated electoral manifesto put out by
the CUD during the run-up to the May 2005
national elections. It indeed resembled some
sort of platform to rally supporters to
vote, although it was still far from being
called an ideological foundation of a
political party.
In more ways than the ruling party, the
opposition camp has been in disarray when it
comes to articulating the role of a state in
a society.
Even those who adored released leaders of
the CUD were in total confusion over this
issue, judging from the series of public
statements they had been giving: Brehanu
Nega (PhD) was very much into what he
described "consensual democracy" - whatever
that really meant - while his close
associate, Befekadu Degife (PhD) was fond of
social democracy. Listening to Hailu Shawel
(Eng.) or Lidetu Ayalew was a different
story with their subscription to liberal
democracy. Only last year, Beyene Petros
(Prof.) came up with a new political party
that contains "social democratic" in its
name.
Hardly are many of the opposition parties
faithful to their claimed ideology, judging
by their recent behaviour. They rather tend
to be populists in their approach, trying to
impress a reluctant public through their
rhetoric instead.
Inflation is tearing through the budgets of
Ethiopian households and is an issue
deserving attention both from the ruling
party and any opposition worth its name for
it is pressing nature in the lives of so
many in both rural and urban Ethiopia.
Nevertheless, the manner in which the
opposition has chosen to voice its stance is
no less disappointing than the piecemeal
approach the governing party has been taking
over the past two years.
If the ruling party was to become
interventionist in its bid to fight
inflation, it should hardly be surprising
for a political force that openly preaches
the need to build a developmental state. It
is also a group with a very strong far-left
history, only leaning to centre-left
economic policy prescriptions after it
assumed state power in the early 1990s.
The opposition claims to have stood opposite
to this, at least in its idiom. In practice,
it is seen far more leftist in its
recommendations of what to do with the
raging inflation that interestingly is
stabilising in the past quarter, according
to consumer price index (CPI) by the Central
Statistics Agency.
The first party to recommend policy measures
against inflation was Lidetu Ayalew's the
United Ethiopian Democratic Party (UEDP-Medhin).
It urged the government to increase wages,
in a bid to offset the inflationary burden
of the urban poor.
Last Thursday, August 30, policy
prescriptions offered at a press conference
in Ras Hotel, by Temesgen Zewede's CUDP,
calling for the state's strong hand in the
economy was just a follow up. Interestingly,
both are no more than much of the same state
intervention that has been offered by the
Revolutionary Democrats.
The populist demand put forth by these
opposition parties comes from groups who
claim to uphold liberal economic thoughts, a
stance much needed at this critical time
when policymakers must sustain the
impressive growth registered in the last
four years.
The break from this represents an
ideological crisis that the opposition has
not been able to pull itself out of for some
time now. More of this type of incoherence
will only add legitimacy to criticisms that
opposition party leaders are merely against
the ruling party and do not have a clear
picture for the future of their own.
Failing to form a party platform that people
can support from both a rational mindset for
well thought out ideas as well as the
emotional appeals that creep into political
discourse too often, will harm both the
opposition strength as well as the country
as a whole that should benefit from an
informed public discourse.
This, frustratingly, is what was seen from
both Lidetu's and Temesgen's parties over
the past few months. The government's latest
decision to increase wages to the civil
service or adjusting pension does not make
it anymore right.
The latest in the saga of opposition parties
dancing to the tune of Revolutionary
Democrats' ideological rhythm comes from the
CUDP. The seven-point recommendation from
CUDP last week could have come from the
ruling party itself, judging by
philosophical leanings; it strongly calls
upon the state to stick its finger in the
workings of market forces. It begs for the
state to intervene in the economy, in far
more proportion than it really should, and
vaguely in the case of calling for temporary
solutions to house rents.
What more mockery of liberalism could there
be by CUDP than calling for the state to
intervene in the contractual relationships
of landlords and tenants? Should not this be
left to the market to decide on the basis of
demand and supply? Are not landlords free to
ask what is worth their property and what
the tenants are willing to pay? Should not
the recommendations be policy moves and
incentives in helping the private sector
expand real estate affordable to all income
groups so that increased supply puts rents
on check?
While this is certainly an area causing woe
amongst the city's populace, it is
irresponsible to join the voices of
complaint demanding solutions to a problem
and neglect to offer concrete solutions.
The message from the CUDP should be seen as
mere political manoeuvring in trying to
advance a populist agenda that would
resonant with city-dwellers under intense
budgetary pressure. Offering immediate
household budget relief sounds great as is
placing responsibility to fix problems on
bureaucracy which gives a sense that someone
will handle the problems. But when the
policy prescriptions are deeply analysed,
they come to nothing more than a short-term
injection of purchasing power for consumers
that will eventually come back to haunt the
economy with additional inflationary
pressure.
Many of the CUDP ideas stimulate an already
overheated demand. This demonstrates that
this party and others in the opposition camp
fail to appreciate, or at the least,
incorporate the findings that the current
inflation is largely demand driven, unlike
in the past where drought and subsequent
famine caused supply-side constraints, hence
inflation. In fact, this is what separates
this period of rising prices from the past
such as the 23.5pc annual inflation seen in
2003 that was caused by a supply shock.
Formulating policies with this finding in
mind is the responsible move for opposition
parties which are meant to have alternative
policy prescriptions; instead of shoving the
same old government interventions into the
mix.
Though unclear, the CUDP and UEDP positions
appear to advocate some form of price
controls, as well reductions on public
utilities bills; difficult propositions
considering the government's administrative
infrastructure and disaggregated market to
regulate. If this is the proposal behind the
vague statements, a clearer picture of how
to implement them is in order.
Indeed, there is blatant information as well
as human and financial resource restrictions
inhibiting the opposition camp from
conducting research on various social and
economic concerns to be used in policy
formulations. There is yet to emerge a
single opposition party with its own team of
think-tanks. If these barriers are
prohibiting the opposition camp, this should
be addressed as a priority. If it is sheer
incompetence, as we suspect the case is, the
opposition camp is failing on one of its
most important duties - offering
alternatives to what the governing party
claims to implement.
Interestingly, there is a glimmer of hope
shining from the debris of CUDP's list of
recommendations that largely betrays the
party's own and publicly declared
ideological oath. It proposes lifting the
duties on imports of cereals. Taxing basic
food commodities is an irresponsible source
of income in a country that has huge number
of its population food insecure and with
glaring income inequalities. These duties
that raise prices on the end user hit the
lower end of the spectrum more severely as
60pc of consumption in Ethiopia is dedicated
to food.
Facilitating cheaper grain imports by
removing the five per cent duty and 15pc VAT
is positive, though imports would still be a
more expensive consumption choice as
Ethiopia's grains have been shown to come to
market at far cheaper prices than those from
both the rest of the world and Africa.
Though not elaborated, it is a welcome
policy recommendation when domestic
production does intermittently fail to meet
demand.
Reducing duties aside, opposition parties'
suggestions for a campaign against inflation
are no more encouraging than the spotty
interventionist measures Revolutionary
Democrats have been able to muster. What the
opposition demands from the government may
garner support from many, as few would
reject indirect handouts. But they are far
from researched and potent policy
instruments to tackle inflation.
It is troubling that the opposition has not
been bold enough to seize the opportunity to
advocate some of the more macroeconomic
policy shifts that would quell inflation,
and thus be able to provide more incentive
to a government thus far unwilling to
entertain such sobering measures.
The strategy of the opposition camp seems to
be to criticise and propose measures in line
with the EPRDF's centre-left ideology and
thus hope that if adopted, they could take
credit for delivering action by influencing
government policy. Until the opposition camp
begins to be more consistent to its
ideological flirtation with liberalism and
produce policy recommendations accordingly,
it is unlikely for it to deserve to be
granted the label of strong opposition.
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