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The government is back at trying to tame the
reigns of the economy to address the raging
inflation hitting especially hard the
pocketbooks of urbanites. Thus far,
officials have appeared to be fairly
helpless to snag the runaway prices at the
roots and construct proactive policies. The
present piecemeal interventions are no
drastic departure from this trend.
Moves in the past few months by the National
Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) to raise the interest
rate by a single percentage point and up the
reserve requirement have not reverberated
through the economy. Combined with this
slight tinkering of monetary instruments,
accusations and threats against alleged
hoarders as well as grain subsidies for
urban poor are not the bold moves the rising
prices appear to beckoning for to be
controlled.
The latest woe of consumers is the drastic
increase in the price of red pepper (berbere),
doubling the cost of the common ingredient
in many national dishes. The cause of such a
dramatic hike is unclear.
The solutions to inflationary pressure,
though they appear to be politically
unpalatable judging from government
inaction, are more apparent. As advocated by
international financial institutions and
this newspaper, bold monetary and fiscal
moves are the bitter medicine the economy
needs. Contractionary policies, curbing
fiscal spending and more severe moves on the
part of the central bank to tighten the
credit supply that has grown by about 200pc
in the past four years, would throw the
brakes on price pressures.
Last week's press conference delivered by
Ahmed Tussa, state minister of Trade and
Industry, however, showed the government is
fonder of an approach that hits at the
symptoms of the problem rather than tackling
the root causes. Moreover, the announcement
of government intervention in the sugar and
edible oil markets signal a refusal to waver
from a philosophy of government control of
many aspects of markets best left to private
sector actors. It is only when the
underlying economic philosophy of the
leaders of the country change that the
structural inefficiencies will cease to
plague markets and contribute to the
inability of the invisible hand to meet the
needs of economic actors.
The Minister's plan to lower the floor price
of sugar auctions from the previous 612 Br
per quintal to 500 Br per quintal aims to
lower the end price offered to consumers.
Though sugar prices have not been
characterised by the steady price increments
many other basic commodities have been
subject to, a shift in budget allocations of
consumers from sugar to other goods would
ease the overall expenditure on a normal
basket of food items.
However, fiddling with the price of this
single item is far from providing a
full-fledged solution to consumers.
Moreover, it points to the virtual state
monopolisation of many aspects of the sugar
market that have created a path dependence
on the controlled structure of the sector.
In the long term, simply furthering this
inefficient structure will do more harm than
good.
In the present, the three state sugar
factories are incapable of meeting domestic
demand, not due to a lack of land or labour
or any other production input, but a mere
inability, all to common in government
monopolised markets, to capitalise on demand
and turn a profit. Constrained by government
management and lacking the proper profit
motives driving private firms, the factories
are unable to conjure innovative ways to
increase production and meet the demand.
The government's solution to this shortage
has been to begin laying the groundwork for
yet another state factory and add imports to
the state-run auctions of sugar. It is here
where the private sector enters the market
left to trim profits from distribution and
value-added activities.
The new policy to lower the price will cut
the revenue the government generates from
sugar sales. Though the price paid by
consumers may be lowered depending on how
cutthroat the distribution market proves to
be in terms of driving economic profits down
on the part of wholesale buyers, the
government will also be adding to its budget
deficit. The decrease in money it has to
fund the largest ever federal budget of 43.9
billion Br must be borrowed and adds
inflationary pressure, possibly offsetting
any positive impact the decrease in sugar
prices may have.
This textbook economic reaction is the catch
in government interventions, as it shows how
often policy makers are apt to not follow
through to analyse the second and third
degree price effects of policies that appear
sound at first glance.
To really address inflation through altering
the structure of the sugar supply would
imply slowly weaning the market off reliance
on government production and distribution
chains by encouraging the private investment
that would exploit the potential laying
dormant in Ethiopia's some 80 million
consumers.
The meddling in the supply network of edible
oil attempts to cut out the middle men that
stand between importers and end users of the
product. According to a study undertaken by
the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI),
the palm oil imported predominately from the
Far East (about 70pc) was entering the
country at about 15 Br per litre, while
consumers were faced with a more than 50pc
mark-up at an average of upwards of 22 Br
per litre. The government's solution is to
cooperate with importers and buy the oil at
a fixed price and sell it at 15 Br per litre.
Taking over the role of the middle men to
distribute the product may be welcomed by
consumers who will pay a lower price, though
the bill to create and operate the
distribution network necessary to carry out
the plan must be considered. A pressing
question to be asked is why the middle men
were able to take such a hefty profit. It is
in finding the answer to this question that
government may be able to take a more
cost-effective and less heavy-handed
approach, instead of completely taking the
process into its own grasp. The opportunity
for the distributors in rent-seeking may
reveal deeper market problems that need more
sustainable measures.
Lifting the surtax from edible oil is a more
direct strategy and approach welcomed both
in the spirit of free market promotion and
because basic commodities demanded in
relatively similar quantities by both the
rich and poor are not the best targets of a
progressive tax system. It is the people
that have apparently benefited most from the
provision of government services that should
pay the most for them in the form of higher
taxes.
The other components of the past week's
press conference should be seen as more
rhetoric from a government that has been
chasing the elusive and seemingly
uncontrollable force of inflation. More
pointing of fingers at alleged hoarders,
this time of red pepper, touting of supposed
success with grain subsidies in bringing
consumer costs down and promises of further
studies are meant to re-assure a public that
seems to be at the end of its wits trying to
cope with household budgetary demands.
The more important questions that point to
the deeper problems lying beneath the
surface are why the government always must
be the initiator of studies and solutions to
problems so obviously harmful to society
such as inflation.
Is it the lack of human capital, relatively
docile educational institutions, lack of
private sector incentive or any number of
other entrenched barriers to effective
information dissemination and utilisation
that bars other agents from authority on
these issues?
The government is in part to blame as its
state-directed development philosophy places
itself squarely in this role of the problem
solver. While the advantages in terms of
state power to this strategy are clear, the
long-term growth of a private sector that
may elevate the living standards of people
in one of the poorest nations in the world
may be sacrificed.
For now the public will continue to toil to
make ends meet as the government sees
inserting its hands further into markets as
the best temporary solution to economy-wide
inflation.
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