In any city reaching the dimensions of Addis Abeba, problems of housing will inevitably arise. As the city swells to over five million inhabitants based on some estimates, though no reliable data exists, surely part of the dilemma to finding housing solutions, densities unnatural to human society require innovative solutions. The space constraints put pressures on public service provisions, fledgling markets struggle to make supply meet demand, as well as the emergence of environmental and liveability factors.

Developing countries across the globe often fall victim to uneven urban and rural economic growth creating swelling city centres promising a better life to former poor agricultural sector workers. Governments lacking regulatory capacity and coherent planning abilities often seem helpless to direct markets so that the new arrivals settle according to efficient arrangements. When differing interests pursue individual gain in a metropolis such as Addis, it often takes a central authority to intervene and fill the lack of collective action that will produce organised housing arrangements.

In a city that has grown by leaps and bounds through the tenures of three vastly dissimilar philosophically-grounded regimes, the capital has developed in a way that defies order. The effect on the housing market is seen in substandard accommodations, poor tenant-landlord relations, shortages for various socio-economic cross sections and market price signals out of tune with earnings.

While housing complaints originate from a variety of sources and find their targets on culprits ranging from alleged corrupt officials to an underdeveloped and under-equipped private sector, the root causes are more ideological.

In the transition from a socialist economy to a supposedly more free market era, land has continued to remain under the iron grip of Ethiopia's government. The EPRDF has refused to formulate any drastic change in its land tenure regime where it controls the soil of the country. While piecemeal modifications have been made concerning individual policy choices, it is only when the ruling party truly changes its ideological outlook on land that Addis Abeba's housing problems will be more comprehensively addressed.

The past five years have seen advances in the state-directed construction of condominiums, though results have often fallen short of targets. The supply has increased, but it is not enough.

The various high-rise dwellings that have appeared on the metropolis' skyline are advances not only for shelter-seekers, but also for the local suppliers of construction materials and the manual labourers who have found employment in a booming sector.

Fledgling private companies often require a kick-start to gain the capacity and experience to become efficient and competitive suppliers. In this light, the contracts awarded to local small and medium-sized enterprises for condo construction are to be lauded as pushes in the right direction for infant market promotion.
 

The threat, however, is that companies buoyed by state contracts will develop an unhealthy dependence and not be able to make the transition to becoming the partners of choice for private sector real estate firms seeking low-cost suppliers.

Moreover, the choice in style of housing construction, condominiums, is advisable in that it has the effect of building towards the limitless sky rather than continuing to sprawl the city. When population is condensed it at least delays the time until the human footprint is placed firmly on the outlying land. The more concentrated infrastructural needs also mean that fewer roads must be constructed, though wider, and public transportation and water and sewage services can realise economies of scale.

These advances in constructions though, may only serve to delay the impending long-term solutions to the core issues of housing provision. While individual constructions are patches to the symptoms, the real medicine will pick away at the foundations of the problem, property rights.

In Ethiopia's gradual transformation to a middle income country that appears to be underway judging from the recent promising growth statistics, the private sector must be the engine pulling the country forward. The fuel to any market based economy is an enforcement of ownership. In this case, entrepreneurs should be given the opportunity to develop and exchange land based on the market forces that create incentives and send price signals to guide behaviour. First, land must be privatised.

The current system in which transfer rights on selected occasions are granted is the extent of the government's will to let ownership of its most powerful possession trickle into the hands of those who value it most, as the invisible hand would dictate. Recent advances in giving privileges to some farmers for the transferability of land are good signs, and those international donors such as the United States (US) that have put the pressure on for such reforms should be appreciated.
 

It does not appear if these efforts will translate into large-scale philosophical shifts anytime soon, though. This may only come with regime change as opposition parties, such as the CUD, have advocated a gradual shift to a mixed property rights regime, incorporating private and state ownership as well as various forms of leasing. This type of measured transition to a free market for land will steadily put the country on the right path of development while avoiding the rapid price fluctuations that cause chaos when drastic turnabouts of policy regimes are instated.

Private ownership of land should be part of the policy goals of Ethiopia's future. More profit driven agents in the land market would surely take advantage of the emerging middle class who, provided the opportunity, will become anxious to become investors in houses and cars, along with other consumer durables.

The current impediments to such aspirations are numerous.
 

The couple thousand Birr a month the budding professional class is pocketing from the slowly enlarging formal market is by no means enough to put the astronomical down payments required from real estate agents. However, with a little innovation in mortgage schemes offered by creditors, a boost in confidence in the long-term earnings prospects from employees in a growing economy, and most importantly, the market-priced land to work with, the hope to own a home may become real for the non-super affluent.
 

The current market deeply constricted by state ownership, however, features plots commanding prices rivalling developed Western city real estate. When the structures standing on the land hold but a fraction of the value compared with the soil underneath, there is little room for bank institutions to begin to develop mortgage policies that will be within the reach of the middle class.
 

The current housing alternatives for city residents are inadequate and have many pocketbooks under stress. The recent raffling of houses, intended to increase the supply has faced criticism as misled winners of residences have stumbled upon prizes that do not meet their expectations and people known by the same names have come into conflict trying to claim their assumed new home.
 

Other reports of raffle winners simply re-renting the lease rights they won by chance for a profit undermine the spirit of the government's attempts to provide housing, but do show the glimmers of an entrepreneurial spirit that could take hold if allowed to flourish.
 

These complaints will continue to be directed at the responsible authorities until privatisation occurs and profit-seekers channel grumbling into opportunities to capitalise on unmet demand.

Of course, the state will continue to have a role, though miniscule at most, in providing the housing safety nets for low income earners who are not captured in the free market, as is the case in many countries. These type of housing subsidy programmes often keep people sheltered who would otherwise be homeless, a state of being that runs into practical problems such as health concerns and the practice of begging, as well as moral issues of government responsibility.

However, the government must certainly change its paternalistic outlook as the provider of land, and, in effect, housing. It is only then that a gradual and consequent shift in the mindset of society from one of dependence on the state to a healthy level of individualistic striving for betterment will take root. This will bring improvement in Ethiopia past solving housing problems.