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Struggling to garner the much needed foreign currency to supply the growing import demand for commodities such as fossil fuels, Ethiopia was overly ambitious in projections for exports last year. The exception was the growing gold industry that managed to surpass expectations while riding the high international prices that have prevailed in metals markets.

 

Exports Fall Short of Target

 

The annual export performance for the 2006/07 fiscal year revealed that Ethiopia exported 1.18 billion dollars worth of commodities, falling short of the 1.5 billion dollar initial target. However, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MoTI) report showed exports have registered a 17.5pc growth from that of last year meeting 78.2pc of its target.
 

Export items sent abroad in the budget year are divided into 29 categories. The main revenue generating commodities next to coffee are hides and skins, grains, oil seeds, spices, khat, gold and tantalum.
 

Though coffee is the number one foreign currency generator, it only fetched 424.1 million dollars, lower than the 488 million dollar goal the government set. Grains, oil seeds and spices jointly were projected to fetch 343.7 million dollars but export earnings from these commodities stood at 267.5 million dollars. The same goes for khat, which managed to fetch 92.8 million dollars while the expectation from the stimulant was 110 million dollars.
 

Though most commodities fell short of their targets in terms of the amount of revenue expected, six export items surpassed their targets; gold, cotton, sugar, wax, natural honey and pikle hides and skins.
 

Gold exports of 5.58tn were projected to generate 68.5 million dollars. However, though the amount of gold exported was close to the initially aimed figure, the 96.9 million dollar revenue generated significantly exceeded the forecast at the beginning of the fiscal year, showing 141.3pc achievement. This is primarily attributed to the skyrocketing of the international gold price to around 700 dollars per ounce from 300 dollars two years ago.
 

Cotton, like gold, has also surpassed its target by 159.5pc; in the same budget year, 11.7tn of cotton was exported, fetching 14.3 million dollars, above the government’s intention to export 9.7tn of cotton valued at 8.9 million dollar.
 

Export income from natural honey was projected to be 420,000 dollars from 92tn, but this also has been surpassed by 280.7pc with exports of 406tn which brought 1.1 million dollars.
 

The two major export items of the country that failed to meet their targets are meat and live animal and textile exports. Though the government targeted 93 million dollars from the export of meat and live animals, it only managed to secure 52 million dollars. This significant under performance is said to have followed the sanctions imposed by the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – the destination of 60pc of the country’s export - on Ethiopian livestock and livestock products on January 14, 2007 due to scares caused by the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever (RVF) in Kenya.
 

The textile sector was another failure, only fetching 12.6 million dollars of the targeted 62.4 million dollars.
 

“Government plans were ambitious and they were based on the assumption that the new textile factories currently under construction would begin operation,” an official at MoTI told Fortune. “However, none of the textile factories undergoing construction have started operating to meet the desired target as the raw materials are in short supply.”
 

Ethiopia’s last year exports were valued at one billion dollars, which at the time was the largest in the nation’s export history.
 

“Though the 17pc growth from that of last year is commendable, the fact that six sectors over performed by more than 150pc and the others significantly fell short of their targets indicates that there is still a lack of concrete planning,” an economics lecturer at Addis Abeba University (AAU) told Fortune.

According to Ethiopia’s Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to end Poverty (PASDEP), the export sector is intended to grow by nine per cent each year.

 


 

By WUDINEH ZENEBE

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