Many litres of ink
have been spent on this page arguing for the rationalisation and
advance of government institutions towards providing a beneficial
environment for private enterprise. Tapping into the individual
potential is without a doubt the best way for offering lasting and
true economic development to Ethiopia and to sub-Saharan Africa in
general.
At the top of this
list, logically, is the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE). It makes
perfect sense that the nation’s central bank should be a driving
force in reforming the country so that it can advance into even the
middle of the table of developing countries (and not 170th,
like the recent human development list provided by the UNDP). It is
not completely unreasonable, one would have thought, to think that
with a set of reforms here and a rethought strategy there, that the
bank could begin really pulling its weight in bringing Ethiopia
forward.
But unfortunately,
sometimes a piece of news lands on the table that turns all these
ruminations and proposals for a brighter future into idealistic,
even naïve daydreaming; visions for tomorrow that fail to realise
that the institutions required to get there cannot even find their
way to the starting gate.
How else to
interpret last week’s shocking news that, two years after sitting
empty like a ghost town, the NBE’s much anticipated Academy of
Financial Studies campus in the Akaki/Kaliti District is to be
unceremoniously handed over to Addis Abeba University, on order of
the Prime Minister.
The sad truth in
its most essential form is that a whopping 120 million Br later, the
powers-that-be finally gave up on the idea that the central bank had
what it took to run the school. Better, finally, to put the premises
into the more trustworthy hands of veteran academics.
And can you blame
the Prime Minster on this decision? Most likely not. This setback
for the NBE is hardly the first in the past year. Every month it
seems, the central bank has another bureaucratic snafu under its
belt.
The greatest
symbol of these series of mishaps is probably the great service
elevator to nowhere. As reported in Fortune last May, the NBE
bought a service elevator for its current building for 99,000 euro.
But since it was delivered by the supplier company, SECALT of
Luxembourg, the central bank has still not figured out how to
install it. Warnings and protestations by the company were simply
responded to with a request for patience. To this day, whenever Bank
experts and officials, including the governor himself, show up to
work, they must walk by this glaring reminder that maybe, just
maybe, everything is not going so well on an execution level at the
central bank. If the NBE cannot figure out to install an elevator
system, how can citizens expect it to figure out the money supply?
And money supply
is a whole other story. The long and winding road to the new Birr
notes has been a testing one indeed. In July, the NBE announced that
it was going to cancel its order for new Birr from Francois Charles
Oberthur Fiducaire (FCOF), a French company, because of the
company’s failure to do deliver the goods three months after
deadline. Fair enough.
But a little over
a month later, as it turned out, the Birr notes were delivered and
to the grand surprise of everyone involved, there was no place to
store the new arrivals. The bank, apparently, was so worried in
following up its order, that it forgot to make sure that its own
infrastructure and logistics were ready for the order’s impending
arrival. It is not a great comfort to anyone hoping that the central
bank can lead macroeconomic monetary policy that it fails to
anticipate storage space issues or how to work new incinerators,
bought to clear out the storage space.
As reported here,
the sugar factory in Wonji came to the rescue and the delivery of
new bank notes could take place more or less appropriately. But what
do these incidents say about the ability of the bank to really
tackle the immediate economic challenges facing the country? If the
Prime Minster has lost faith in the NBE to move its academy 20-odd
kilometres into state-of-the-art facilities worthy of the Sheraton,
how much faith can he have that the bank can do its real job of
managing the country’s monetary policy and regulating its quickly
expanding banking industry?
Sadly, this may
very well be a trick question. One of the major reforms this page
has argued for is an increased independence for the NBE from its
political overseers, led by the Prime Minister and his cabinet.
Central Bank experts and governors need to have the clarity of mind,
purpose and, crucially, capability to make the right decisions for
the country’s economic development.
But they do not
have this independence and freedom of manoeuvre. Indeed, as
inflation ratchets up to well into the double digits, it is
abundantly clear that the NBE has neither a plan for addressing the
price increases nor an ambition or sense of purpose to do so. Such
crucial decision making, it seems, would never come from its
auspices. Despite its army of experts and specialists and their
volumes of graphs and reports, any decision to increase interest
rates or disburse with foreign currency is more likely than not to
be taken from the office of the Prime Minister and the Council of
Ministers.
Sadly, judging by
the NBE’s ability to manage a campus, it is probably just as well
that the ruling party centralises major monetary policy decisions.
Or at least that is what can be argued. By depriving the NBE of real
purpose, the incapability to one day carry out that purpose becomes
a self fulfilling prophecy. And ironically, the NBE has now lost a
major tool of improving its capability (the academy), because of its
own very incapability. This all quite depressing and complicated, to
say the least and leaves open the question how the thousands of
Ethiopians needed to man the expanding financial sector (20,000
employees today) will adequately get training.
In the face of all
these debacles, it would be very easy to call for the resignation of
the governor, the experts or anyone else responsible for these
embarrassing times at the NBE. But much like the recent billing
system scandal at the Ethiopian Telecommunications Corporation,
firing and replacing people can only accomplish so much if the
overall structure and philosophy ruling an institution is not
addressed. Much like the elevator to nowhere, it is all fine and
well to build a luxurious campus (with swimming pool!), but if the
capability is not there to administer it, you are left with a ghost
town.
Maybe, under the
circumstances, the Prime Minister is right to hand over the keys to
the campus to the University and its doctoral students. In a limited
way, it makes sense. But the abject failure of the NBE to fill its
own promises, does not leave executive power completely off the
hook.
In order for this
not to happen again, the guiding philosophy for the ruing party
should be to turn the NBE into an ironclad institution perfectly
capable of handling the monetary policy of Ethiopia, leading a true
insurrection against inflation and providing a stable environment
for private enterprise. Without rewiring the institution, the same
mistakes will be made and the same elevator towards development will
be stuck on the ground floor.