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The new Penn World
Table, Version 6.2, comparing standards of living across
countries, has just been released. The latest figures are for 2004, and,
because of data lags, not all countries are included. Yet these numbers
are valuable because they are of exceptional quality and they correct
systematically for relative price differences across countries, which
sometimes leads to surprising results.
Among the 82
countries for which 2004 data are now available, there has been really
good news: real per capita GDP has risen by an average of 18.9pc between
2000 and 2004, or 4.4pc per year. People generally are a lot better off
than they were just a few years ago. At this rate, real per capita GDP
will double every 16 years.
Many people who
could not afford a car in 2000 now have one, and people who could afford
only one car in 2000 now have two. People who could not afford to send
their children to a good school or college now can. And so it is with
many different goods and services that people consume.
One surprise is
that there has been relatively little change in the ranking of countries
by real per capita GDP since 2000. Despite all the talk about the
Chinese economic miracle, China’s ranking has risen only slightly, from
61st out of 82 countries in 2000 to 60th in 2004 – even though per
capita real GDP grew by 44pc between 2000 and 2004, or 9.6pc a year, the
highest of the major countries.
The reason China
has not risen higher is that other countries have been growing too, and
because the gaps between countries are enormous. The range between the
poorest and the richest countries in the world is a factor of more than
100. The average real per capita GDP of the top 25pc of countries is 15
times that of the bottom 25pc.
Watching these
countries progress is like watching a marathon. At first, one is
impressed by most of the runners, almost all of whom seem to be going
fast. As they pass by, all spread out, one sees that some runners seem
to be gaining rapidly. And yet they do not often overtake one another,
because the distances between them are so large. Indeed, other runners
are out of sight, perhaps miles ahead.
China is not the
only success story. Other big winners in terms of real per capita GDP
between 2000 and 2004 are Lithuania (up 48pc), Romania (up 41pc),
Estonia (up 40pc), Chile (up 33pc), Hungary (up 32pc), Greece (up 31pc),
New Zealand (up 28pc), Australia (up 25pc), Korea (up 23pc), Ireland (up
23pc), South Africa (up 23pc), and Nigeria (up 22pc).
Some of the worst
performers among the major countries are Israel (a beleaguered country,
with real per capita GDP up only two percent between 2000 and 2004) and
Argentina (hit by a terrible financial crisis in 2001-2, up only nine
percent between 2000 and 2004). Economic performance in several Latin
American countries was relatively weak in this period, with Uruguay’s
real GDP per capita actually recording a fall by a fraction of a
percent. But the overall picture is amazingly good.
If such growth
rates continue, we will see relatively poor countries like India,
Indonesia, the Philippines, or Nicaragua reach the average levels
currently enjoyed by advanced countries in 50 years. But, of course,
they will not have caught up with these countries, for those countries
will have moved ahead too.
It is hard to
imagine now what that world will be like with a doubling or quadrupling
of just about every country’s GDP. What would all these countries do
with all that money?
In 1958, the
economist John Kenneth Galbraith wrote the best-selling book The
Affluent Society , in which he argued that the advanced world as
typified by the United States had by that year finally emerged from
“grim scarcity,” when dire necessity dictated our lives, to a “world of
affluence.” He wrote: “So great has been the change [in standards of
living] that many of the desires of the individual are no longer even
evident to him. They become so only as they are synthesized, elaborated
and nurtured by advertising and salesmanship, and these, in turn, have
become among our most important and talented professions.”
But real per capita
GDP in the US is now three times higher than it was in 1958. What have
people been spending all that extra money on? Is it all dictated by
advertisers and salesmen who are inventing needs?
According to my
calculations comparing 1958 and 2005 data from the US Department of
Commerce, Americans spent 27pc of the huge increase in income between
1958 and 2005 on medical care, 23pc on their homes, 12pc on
transportation, 10pc on recreation, and nine percent on personal
business activities.
The kinds of things
that advertisers and salesmen typically promote were relatively
unimportant. Food got only eight percent of the extra money, clothing
only three percent, and personal care one percent. Unfortunately,
idealistic activities also received little of the extra money: three
percent for welfare and religious activities, and a similar share for
education.
Thus, most of the
extra money was spent on staying healthy, having a nice home, traveling
and relaxing, and doing a little business.
That sounds like
what really happened in the US. Maybe that is the way it will be around
the world. As long as we can keep worldwide growth going at its current
rate, billions of people can look forward to the same kind of
improvement. And that should be truly inspirational.
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