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Our political systems
and global politics are largely unequipped for the real challenges of
today’s world. Global economic growth and rising populations are putting
unprecedented stresses on the physical environment, and these stresses
in turn are causing unprecedented challenges for our societies.
Yet politicians are largely ignorant of these trends.
Governments are not organized to meet them. And crises that are
fundamentally ecological in nature are managed by outdated strategies of
war and diplomacy.
Consider, for example, the situation in Darfur, Sudan. This
horrible conflict is being addressed through threats of military force,
sanctions, and generally the language of war and peacekeeping. Yet the
undoubted origin of the conflict is the region is extreme poverty, which
was made disastrously worse in the 1980s by a drought that has
essentially lasted until today.
It appears that long-term climate change is leading to
lower rainfall not only in Sudan, but also in much of Africa just south
of the Sahara Desert, an area where life depends on the rains, and where
drought means death.
Darfur has been caught in a drought-induced death trap, but
nobody has seen fit to approach the Darfur crisis from the perspective
of long-term development rather than the perspective of war. Darfur
needs a water strategy more than a military strategy. Its seven million
people cannot survive without a new approach that gives them a chance to
grow crops and water their animals. Yet all of the talk at the United
Nations is about sanctions and armies, with no path to peace in sight.
Water stress is becoming a major obstacle to economic
development in many parts of the world. The water crisis in Gaza is a
cause of disease and suffering among Palestinians, and is a major source
of underlying tensions between Palestine and Israel. Yet again, billions
of dollars are spent on bombing and destruction in the region, while
virtually nothing is done about the growing water crisis.
China and India, too,
will face growing water crises in the coming years, with potentially
horrendous consequences. The economic takeoff of these two giants
started 40 years ago with the introduction of higher agricultural output
and an end to famines. Yet part of that increased agricultural output
resulted from millions of wells that were sunk to tap underground water
supplies for irrigation.
Now the water table is falling at a dangerous pace, as the
underground water is being pumped much faster than the rains are
recharging it.
Moreover, aside from rainfall patterns, climate change is
upsetting the flow of rivers, as glaciers, which provide a huge amount
of water for irrigation and household use, are rapidly receding due to
global warming. Snow pack in the mountains is melting earlier in the
season, so that river water is less available during summer growing
seasons. For all of these reasons, India and China are experiencing
serious water crises that are likely to intensify in the future.
The United States faces risks as well. Midwestern and
southwestern states have been in a prolonged drought that might well be
the result of long-term warming, and the farm states rely heavily on
water from a huge underground reservoir that is being depleted by
over-pumping.
Just as pressures on oil and gas supplies have driven up
energy prices, environmental stresses may now push up food and water
prices in many parts of the world. Given the heat waves, droughts, and
other climate stresses across the US, Europe, Australia, and elsewhere
this year, wheat prices are now shooting up to their highest levels in
decades. Thus, environmental pressures are now hitting the bottom line,
affecting incomes and livelihoods around the world.
With rising populations, economic growth, and climate
change, we will face intensifying droughts, hurricanes and typhoons,
powerful El Ninos, water stress, heat waves, species extinctions, and
more. The “soft” issues of environment and climate will become the hard
and strategic issues of the 21st century.
Yet there is almost no recognition of this basic truth in
our governments or our global politics. People who speak about hunger
and environmental crises are viewed as muddle-headed “moralists”, as
opposed to the hard-headed “realists” who deal with war and peace. This
is nonsense. The realists just do not understand the sources of tensions
and stresses that are leading to a growing number of crises around the
world.
Our governments should all establish ministries of
sustainable development, devoted full-time to managing the linkages
between environmental change and human well-being.
Agriculture ministers by themselves will not be able to
cope with water shortages that farmers will face. Health ministers will
not be able to cope with an increase in infectious diseases due to
global warming. Environment ministers will not be able to cope with the
pressures on oceans and forests, or the consequences of increasing
extreme weather events like last year’s Hurricane Katrina or this year’s
Typhoon Saomai, China’s worst in many decades. A new powerful ministry
should be charged with coordinating the responses to climate change,
water stress, and other ecosystem crises.
At the global level, the world’s governments should finally
understand that the treaties that they have all signed in recent years
on climate, environment, and biodiversity are at least as important to
global security as all of the war zones and crisis hotspots that grab
the headlines, budgets, and attention. By focusing on the underlying
challenges of sustainable development, our governments could more easily
end the current crises (as in Darfur) and head off many more crises in
the future.
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