Far worse, however, were the additional comments of the Swedish Secretary for International Development outside the Contact Group meeting to the effect that such aid ". . . will happen when there is a legitimate and legal transitional government to deal with . . . Unfortunately, our judgement is that there isn't one any longer as the transition institutions, and particularly the transition government, have been seriously weakened and the (Islamists) have broad and deep public support . . ."
 

This statement, apart from demonstrating how poor "our judgement" actually is, also showed substantial ignorance about what has been happening in Somalia, and a failure to understand either the Islamic courts or Somali politics more generally. It also appeared to be a statement designed to ensure the failure of the Khartoum talks. It was an excellent example of the all-too-common and incompetent interference from Europe and the West to which Somalia, and indeed the Horn of Africa more generally, has been becoming accustomed in the last couple of years. 
 

There is deep misunderstanding about the recent rise of the Islamic courts, of the basis of their power and the relationship between the courts and clans and other centres of authority in Somalia, including the TFG - which has considerably more support than it is currently given credit for by journalists and diplomats based in Nairobi, and largely dependent upon pro-Islamic propaganda emanating from Mogadishu.

The TFG, for example, has significant support from three of the four main clan families in southern Somalia - the Darod, the Dir and the Rahenweyne. Support for the SICS is largely confined to the Hawiye alone. The TFG has also made considerably more progress in creating the planned transitional federal institutions than it is given credit for; for instance in the establishment of a local administration and the appointment of a governor in Bay region. This process is now underway in Bakool region, and will, as in Bay, involve community-based peace and reconciliation building, district reconciliation conferences, the appointment of district commissioners and police chiefs, and the formation of district development councils whose representatives will elect a governor and deputies for the region.

Some progress has also been made in establishing a Supreme Court, a police training academy has been set up, and the TFG Parliament has been sitting, if somewhat raucously and argumentatively, in Baidoa.   

Certainly, the SICS and the TFG are both fragile, and there is no doubt that the victories of the SICS in Mogadishu in June altered the political landscape of Somalia, shifting it from a tri-polar to a bi-polar conflict. It did not, however, change the main parameters of conflict in Somalia. These remain, as they have always been, clan conflicts.

The SICS, despite its Islamic credentials, and whether it admits it or not, is essentially a Hawiye clan organisation, and more specifically one driven by the single Hawiye sub-clan, the Ayr/Habir Gidir/Hawiye.    

The history of Somalia during the last 15 years clearly demonstrates Somali reluctance to fight for any acronym if it involves an alliance with other clans, or conflict within one's own clan. Use of the TFG or the SICS may be invoked for external consumption but the real dynamics have consistently been clan-driven - as it was earlier this year in Mogadishu. The fighting between the Islamic Courts' Union (now the Supreme Islamic Court of Somalia - SICS) and the Alliance for the Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism (ARPCT) was a messy combination of inter-clan conflict, between Habir Gidir and Abgal, and fighting among both Abgal and Habir Gidir sub-clans. The result was a clear-cut victory for the Habir Gidir for the first time, and more specifically for the Ayr, however concealed within the framework of the Islamic courts. 

The core of Somali political activity remains the clan and this is as true for the ICU/SICS as of its former enemies in Mogadishu, the ARPCT, or the TFG. Somali intellectuals like to claim to be above the clan and to decry the influence of clans on politics. The fact remains that the clan is central; all Somalis perceive their own interests to be bound up within the lineage, the sub-clan and the clan.

And the current conflict is now playing out in exactly these terms despite the claims of the SICS to be above clan politics. The SICS may be attempting to activate Islamic elements in other areas of Somalia but it has made little progress. The fact remains that it is almost exclusively drawn from the Hawiye clan, and this is why it is now reaching the limit of its potential authority. It is running out of Hawiye territory to control.

Of the original 11 courts in the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) at the beginning of the year, 10 were based upon Hawiye sub-clans in Mogadishu; the 11th was drawn from the Jareer/Bantu clans. Even more exclusively, the radical, fundamentalist, Salafi element of the SICS leadership, is drawn from the Ayr sub-clan, and to a considerable degree from the Ayanle lineage of the Ayr, a sub-clan of the Habir Gidir, one of the major branches of the Hawiye.

Islamic courts in Mogadishu, as elsewhere in Somalia, have had a chequered past since the first were set up in the mid 1990s, but they have had one thing in common - almost all were set-up and organised within specific sub-clans. The first courts in south Mogadishu created in 1997-98 were all Hawiye - for the Murosade, and the Duduble, three for Habir Gidir sub-clans: Salabaan, Ayr, and Saruur, and one for the Daud/Abgal. There was no indication that these courts were fundamentalist, but some individuals in them certainly were.

These courts were largely the creation of businessmen, clan elders and community and religious leaders within specific sub-clans, and their authority came from the clan elders. The aim was to provide security through the use of Shari'a law, prevent local clan/sub-clan/lineage conflict and provide a more secure environment for business. There were, however, those who saw the courts as a possible vehicle for the creation of an Islamic state, for a theocracy, perhaps on the Iranian model which seems to appeal to the leader of the SICS shura, Sheikh Hassan Dahir 'Aweys'.

Each court normally had a chairman, a vice-chairman, four judges, and an advisory council of religious elders, and a committee to manage the money brought in from court appearances, as well as fines and control of checkpoints at the boundaries of sub-clan control. The courts drew on the authority of the clan elders to set up their own militia and provide places of detention for prisoners, dealing with both criminal and civil cases. There is no doubt the courts significantly improved the security situation within their areas of operation.

A Joint Courts Council was set up in 2000 with the former leader of the north Mogadishu courts, Sheikh Ali Dheere as chairman, and Sheikh Hassan Dahir 'Aweys' as secretary-general. This made some progress in trying to organise a joint militia force, and set up a court in Merka, south of Mogadishu. Any progress it might have made, however, was overtaken in 2000 by the setting up of a Transitional National Government, headed by Abdiqassim Salad Hassan, at the Arta conference in Djibouti. This was seen by Ethiopia and other interested parties as a largely Islamic government; but one of its few effects was to undermine the Islamic courts.

The TNG tried to bring the courts under its ministry of justice, forcing judges to sit examinations on their qualifications, and taking the court militias into government security apparatus for training. As a result, many of the untrained Islamic court judges resigned and by 2002 only the Ifka Halan (Ayr) and Harariyale (Murasade) courts were still operating in south Mogadishu, and these only barely.  

As the TNG fell apart, another attempt to try and set up a government was launched at the Mbagathi conference in Kenya. This ended in November 2004 with the creation of the TFG, headed by Abdullahi Yusuf, elected by the newly formed assembly in November 2004. The new government was unable to go to Mogadishu because of the overall security situation and because of the continued opposition of a number of powerful Hawiye warlords, which continued despite appointments as government ministers. After a considerable stay in Nairobi, and a brief spell in Jowhar, the TFG ended up in Baidoa where it still remains.