|
There currently appears to be a start to an
era where Melesism is creeping into
the Ethiopian polity. It is a worldview
mainly consisting of and articulated in the
person of Meles Zenawi. It is an ideology
that Meles persuaded his comrades in the
ruling Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) to espouse.
To the frustration of the neoliberals,
Melesism believes in the largess of
state machinery to transform the nation. He
inherited and became the custodian of the
all powerful and paternalistic historical
Ethiopian state. Equally and to the dismay
of his student movement era colleagues, this
ideology also wants to build an economy
based on the liberal values of private
sector involvement in the operation of the
economy and the respect for the private
ownership of property. However, his desire
to maintain the status quo, whereby his
party remains as a dominant force in
Ethiopia, unchallenged and unbeatable in
elections for decades to come, is a
nightmare for his opponents.
A system of single party dominance in an
environment of multiparty democracy and a
supremacy of the state in running an economy
in a space where the private sector has room
to manoeuvre, as in South Korea, Japan, or
Mexico, has a name in Ethiopia,
revolutionary democracy, a la carte
EPRDF.
As such, the worldview of revolutionary
democracy is not a new invention of Meles,
although there is not that much literature
available on the subject. But it draws its
origins from the socialist camp and has,
hence, evolved into what has now become a
social democratic world outlook,
particularly dominant in Scandinavian
countries, such as Sweden, a country which
Meles often says he would like to emulate.
Much of the discourse on revolutionary
democracy was held in the early 20th Century
within the embrace of social democracy or in
the camps of democratic socialists. Before
the overwhelming global ascendancy of the
new right or neoliberalism after
the end of the cold war period, proponents
of democratic socialism believed in the
gradual and evolutionary triumph of
socialism over capitalism. This is in
contrast to their other friends who believed
that revolution in a radical transformation
of society, under the vanguard leadership
and Marxian dictatorship of the proletariat,
was needed to achieve an egalitarian
society.
What, perhaps, makes revolutionary
democracy, as advocated in Melesism,
different from traditional social democracy
is its beliefs in a market based economic
system and pluralism in political
governance. It aspires to register speedy
and sustainable economic growth, create a
moderately friendly environment for
businesses, and ensure the stability of the
nation. Contrary to democratic socialist
views, it aims to create lilywhite
capitalism down the road.
The question has always been how this could
be possible without creating a socialist
authoritarian state where dissent is not
tolerated. Creating a political environment
that favours an incumbent in electoral
contests for decades, without infringing on
political rights as espoused under
liberalism and rigging these elections is
where Melesism has been challenged.
For the revolutionary democracy idealist in
Ethiopia, who argues that political leaders
should stay in office much longer than a
single five-year term to accomplish what
they may have started, it is possible to win
elections and stay in power for decades.
Thus, it is no surprise if Meles was
surprised, as he said he was, by the events
of last week. Despite the cynicism of his
critics, the results of last Sunday’s
national elections on May 23, 2010, turned
out to be spectacular in many ways to many
of the groups who care to take an interest.
For the Revolutionary Democrats, it surely
was a comeback with a vengeance from their
humiliation in 2005 and a vindication of
what Melesism has been advocating
since then. That it is possible to win
elections in an overwhelming landslide and
without necessarily acting as amateurs in
rigging the elections during voting and
counting days, was evident this past week.
Procedurally, the elections last week were
phenomenal. Voter turnout was high, nearly
32 million of the 37 million people eligible
to vote registered, a number larger by 5.5
million voters compared with the one in
2005. Over 90pc of those registered voted
last Sunday, according to the National
Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), a
federal agency in charge of managing
electioneering in Ethiopia whose
organisational capability earned rare praise
from international observers.
Candidates, numbering 2,174, were fielded
for Federal Parliament and double that
figure for the regional councils,
representing close to 63 political parties
registered under the board. This figure was
up by 15pc and 19pc, respectively, when
compared to the elections in 2005. Although
diminished due to the incumbent’s lack of
appetite for live transmission, unlike five
years ago, candidates running on the
platforms of these various parties debated
nine times on policy issues from foreign
policy to the rule of law and economic
issues. It was broadcasted on national TV
with little trimming and few cut-outs.
Of course, this was an election no different
from its predecessors in accusations and
counteraccusations of foul play by the
contending parties. The board received 204
complaints from these parties. Forty-five of
them were based on harassment and threats
directed at candidates and supporters.
Ironically, both the incumbent and its
challengers logged complaints of such a
nature. Ninety of those complaints were
resolved at the level of the forum created
by contending parties, after the board
directed the issues there.
The process of casting votes was conducted
in peaceful manner. It was monitored by
observers from domestic associations and the
European and the African unions. Nearly all
polling stations were watched by EPRDF
representatives, while representatives from
Beyene Petros’s (PhD) Forum for Justice and
Democratic Dialogue (FJDD) were in
attendance at half of them. Hailu Shawel’s
(Eng) All Ethiopian Unity Party (AEUP) sent
its representatives to 20pc of the polling
stations where European observers monitored.
Both the ballot casting and vote counting
processes were declared to be satisfactory
in 66pc of the polling stations, while the
remaining were described as poor. No
domestic or international observer has so
far come up with reports of rigging or
systematic irregularities of these elections
during or after the polling date. The
toughest criticism from European observers
came in the form of an imbalance during the
campaign period between a highly resourceful
and dominant EPRDF and its poorly financed,
fractured and incoherent opposition.
Nonetheless, it was such a process that
ushered in electoral victory for the
Revolutionary Democrats in a landslide
nature. There were only two candidates from
outside of the sphere of influence of the
incumbent who managed to win their contests
by our press time. One, Asheber W. Giorgis
(MD), a candidate on a private platform
contesting for election down in Bonga,
Oromia Regional State, claimed that he was
more of an EPRDFite than his challenger,
Brehane Adelo, secretary of the Council of
Ministers.
It is too good to be true to think that
voters who voted for the opposition alliance
in an overwhelming manner five years ago now
went in droves to all but the opposition, at
least in Addis Abeba. Even the EPRDFites
found it beyond their earlier expectations
of a maximum of 70pc of the votes.
Indeed, voters have sent strong and clear
messages both to the incumbent and its
opponents. It is time for both parties to
take stock of events last week, in a manner
that is beyond the usual rhetoric and
emotions.
There could be various reasons why the
ruling party was voted into office this
time, to the extent that it was. One is, of
course, that its leaders responded to public
discontent and dissatisfaction over their
conduct prior to 2005. Not only have they
swelled the size of their membership, though
commitment is questionable, they have also
engaged in dialogues and consultations with
the populace before enacting and enforcing
their policies. Their leaders came down to
earth from their perceived arrogance and
contempt to hear what the average guy has to
say.
They capitalised on their positive
performance on the economic front, and their
many infrastructural undertakings were
pleasantly visible to many of their voters.
Contrary to their overconfidence in 2005,
they staged very aggressive campaigns that
seemed to leave no room to chance. Oiled
with over 30 million Br in campaign
contributions from businesses, the EPRDFites
adorned cities and towns with their posters,
banners, placards, key chains, hats,
T-shirts, jackets, and watches. Never before
was the incumbent so visible and
overwhelming in its electoral campaign.
If there was an imbalance on the level
playing field, it was evident during the
campaign period, to the extent that it
looked like a match between a team in the
major league and one in the minor league. No
opposition contender managed to get close to
the overriding presence of the incumbent
prior to polling dates.
Nonetheless, voters did not simply respond
to what the incumbent did during its
campaign. In the same manner they punished
the EPRDF in 2005 for its arrogance and poor
performance, they punished the opposition
parties for their failures since then. Many
voters were disappointed by the lack of
leadership and the subsequent fracture seen
within the opposition camp, they said. The
opposition was too weak, disorganised, and
jumbled to be trusted to run the business of
this country, they decided. The dynamics
within the opposition over the past five
years failed to present to voters hope. Many
now regret the opposition’s lack of
foresight in its decision not to take its
parliamentary seats after the 2005 National
Elections. Many voters felt betrayed after
the prices they paid on behalf of the
opposition.
And yet, the FJDD, a.k.a. Medrek, an
electoral vehicle of eight opposition
parties put together two years ago,
performed incredibly better than other
opposition parties that had a history and
foundation. The gap between the incumbent
and Medrek in their results was as revealing
as the one between it and other opposition
parties, such as the AEUP and Lidetu
Ayalew’s Ethiopian Democratic Party (EDP).
It is here that there are clear messages
from voters, both to the incumbent and its
opponents. Voters want the opposition to put
its house in order before awarding them with
their votes. But the unexpected performance
of Medrek in the polls last week shows that
there still is a large number of voters who
remain as discontented as they were five
years ago, due to the ruling party’s
shortcomings in area of the rule of law,
including double standards in the delivery
of justice and its belligerence toward
accountability.
For such voters, the EPRDF often represents
a power that is arrogant, on whom the laws
of the land do not apply. Meles’s appearance
at a rally last week at Meskel Square, to
address his supporters, was one such case
where many thought that he violated the code
of conduct that he signed, promising not to
declare victory before the NEBE did. While
the double standard is evident in his
administration’s allowance of his supporters
to rally, while it denied such rights to
those who supported his opponents.
To his credit, his statements at the rally
were conciliatory and statesmanlike. He held
out an olive branch in a gesture of
accommodation and moderation. This was never
seen before over the past 19 years.
It is good, it is positive, and it gives
hope. The opposition should pay him in kind. |