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The week was a milestone for Ethiopia, which remains
in a long struggle to instil multiparty democracy,
sometimes in the hardest ways. For the populace, a
sizable portion of whom live under the misery of
poverty, this was a time to elect their
representatives.
In a country where informed political discourse has
been a life of a privileged few, there are many who
count this milestone as an achievement in itself.
With the release of preliminary results, the
governing party, the Ethiopian Peoples’
Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), seems to
have won in a landslide, whereas the opposition,
including big names in the nation’s political scene,
is defeated with a mathematically irreconcilable
margin.
In view of the pre election predictions that were
pointed out by different political analysts, some
self-proclaimed as such, the result was the topmost
probable scenario.
Some, including the New York based Human Rights
Watch (HRW), attributed the results to the ever
narrowing political space since 2005, a
systematically repressive political vehicle of the
governing party, continued oneness of the state and
the governing party, and silencing of dissenting
voices. Ruling party officials, on the other hand,
praised the victory as a result of their hard-fought
war against poverty, illiteracy, economic
stagnation, poor healthcare provision, insufficient
infrastructure provision, and policy impropriety.
But, beyond these reasons, the overall process made
it obvious that the nation is trapped in
cappuccino politics, where the substance rises
only after the hoopla settles.
One of the major characteristics of cappuccino
politics is the “trading fear” game. Parties
seeking to get elected gamble on the fears of the
common people. The one who can scare the hell out of
the voter the most gets elected. As in any other
developing country, especially African ones, this
very tactic was employed both by the governing as
well as the opposition parties. Both the EPRDF and
the opposition has been vigorously utilising this
tactic.
The former portrayed a busted country if the
opposition camp were to win, while the latter
claimed that the governing party is “the biggest
evil.” The voter was left to choose from the two
scenarios of scare, a national existence under
question and a house on fire. It seems that the
public preferred to fight the fire rather than risk
its existence.
The opposition camp seems to have been caught with
its head in the clouds, as it could not comprehend
its own defeat. Yet, unarguably, the future of this
toddling democracy depends on what they decide,
after all.
Another characteristic that was brought to light as
the dust began to settle was the fact that the play
was between a lion and a rabbit. In such a perplexed
political culture, the rabbit pretended to look like
a lion, while the lion failed to recognise the
benefit of taking care of the rabbit. A fair feeding
relationship would help to keep the harmony of the
food chain, just like spirited opposition would help
to inculcate good governance.
The opposition parties were constantly accusing the
governing party of intimidation and harassment. The
governing party, on its side, was constantly
asserting the accusations as fabricated lies and
futile rhetoric. During the campaigns, all these
processes made it crystal clear that the opposition
has little leverage to act upon.
The weighty governing party campaigned so well that
it was able to reach out to all sects of the
society, while the opposition parties were only able
to reach out to just a fraction of the country. The
resources spent by the parties for their campaigns
are clear evidence, in this regard.
Even on the policy front, the opposition failed to
present strong and technically viable alternatives.
The governing party has done good damage control by
avoiding economic policy and management as a title
of electoral debate. Even on those debates that the
opposition parties might have outwitted the
governing party, they failed to throw a strong
punch. At the end of the day, the rabbit has only
received lip service from the lion, though the play
could have been predicted to end hilariously at the
outset.
After all, that is cappuccino politics. The coffee
just pretends to overwhelm the milk.
One other characteristic of this kind of politics is
its spiral dynamicity. As it is difficult to judge
to what extent the contrasts of the milk would be
affected by the coffee, no one but the voters could
be sure about the assumptions attached their the
votes. Hence, the whole thing might not be there
after a month, or a year or so. That is the very
nature of human beings, no different when it comes
to Ethiopians.
The continuum of voters’ feelings ranges from
hopelessness to anticipation, from stipulation to
proclivity, and from love to abhorrence. The people
have spoken and their voices shall be heard. But, no
one can guarantee that the people will speak
similarly next time.
One thing has become obvious in this election,
though. The people are able to evaluate the offers
presented to them, even if they are a choice between
two kinds of scares. We witnessed that the five
years of relentless work by the governing party,
organising grassroots support, can never be weighed
against a three-month campaign by the opposition
parties.
The big guys in the opposition camp were hopeful
that their social status and acclaimed political
experience could stir things up to turn the air in
their favour. Yet, the wind blew in a different
direction to throw them off of the horizon. The
total and complete victory of the EPRDF in the
elections might be attributed either to its
achievements or to the lack of a viable alternative.
The whole thing will be clear, only after the dust
settles, as this is typical with such politics.
Some would argue that we might miss the very brief
but intellectual Parliamentary sessions that we have
had in the past. Others attest that the big looser
is the governing party, as it has lost spokespersons
of public opinion. Still others argue that we might
be sliding back to one party state. Similarly,
others proclaim that this is a “moment of strategic
silence” for the opposition.
It is only the public that can define which will
hold true and which will be falsified. But it seems
that we have reached that defining moment to agree
on where we want to go as a nation and how we will
reach that place. Overhauling the culture of our
politics is the first place to start the walk. In
doing so, both the governing as well as the
opposition parties shall join hands and cross
fingers, looking at the bigger picture rather than
issues at hand. It is only then that our politics
will grow less chaotic and our nation more
prosperous.
Who would not crave a taste of that anyway? |