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Industrial policy never went out of fashion.
Economists enamoured of the neo-liberal Washington
Consensus may have written it off, but successful
economies have always relied on government policies
that promote growth by accelerating structural
transformation.
China is a case in point. Its phenomenal
manufacturing prowess rests in large part on public
assistance to new industries. State owned
enterprises have acted as incubators for technical
skills and managerial talent. Local content
requirements have spawned productive supplier
industries in automotive and electronics products.
Generous export incentives have helped firms break
into competitive global markets.
Chile, which is often portrayed as a free-market
paradise, is another example.
The government has played a crucial role in
developing every significant new export that the
country produces. Chilean grapes broke into world
markets thanks to publicly financed research and
development. Forest products were heavily subsidised
by none other than General Augusto Pinochet. And the
highly successful salmon industry is the creation of
Fundación Chile, a quasi-public venture fund.
But when it comes to industrial policy, it is the
United States that takes the cake. This is ironic,
because the term "industrial policy" is anathema in
American political discourse. It is used almost
exclusively to browbeat political opponents with
accusations of Stalinist economic designs.
Yet the US owes much of its innovative prowess to
government support. As Josh Lerner, Harvard Business
School professor, explains in his book "Boulevard of
Broken Dreams," US Department of Defense contracts
played a crucial role in accelerating the early
growth of Silicon Valley. The Internet, possibly the
most significant innovation of our time, grew out of
a Defense Department project initiated in 1969.
Nor is America's embrace of industrial policy a
matter of historical interest only. Today the US
Federal Government is the world's biggest venture
capitalist by far. According to The Wall Street
Journal, the US Department of Energy (DOE) alone is
planning to spend more than 40 billion dollars in
loans and grants to encourage private firms to
develop green technologies, such as electric cars,
new batteries, wind turbines, and solar panels.
During the first three quarters of 2009, private
venture capital firms invested less than three
billion dollars combined in this sector. The DOE
invested 13 billion dollars.
The shift toward embracing industrial policy is
therefore a welcome acknowledgement of what sensible
analysts of economic growth have always known.
Developing new industries often requires a nudge
from the government. The nudge can take the form of
subsidies, loans, infrastructure, and other kinds of
support. But scratch the surface of any new
successful industry anywhere, and more likely than
not you will find government assistance lurking
beneath.
The real question about industrial policy is not
whether it should be practiced, but how.
Here are three important principles to keep in mind.
Industrial policy is a state of mind rather than a
list of specific policies. Its successful
practitioners understand that it is more important
to create a climate of collaboration between the
government and the private sector than to provide
financial incentives. Through deliberation councils,
supplier development forums, investment advisory
councils, sectoral roundtables, or private-public
venture funds, collaboration aims to elicit
information about investment opportunities and
bottlenecks.
This requires a government that is "embedded" in the
private sector, but not in bed with it.
Industrial policy needs to rely on both “carrots and
sticks.” Given its risks and the gap between its
social and private benefits, innovation requires
rents, returns above what competitive markets
provide. That is why all countries have a patent
system. But open-ended incentives have their own
costs. they can raise consumer prices and bottle up
resources in unproductive activities. That is why
patents expire.
The same principle needs to apply to all government
efforts to spawn new industries. Government
incentives need to be temporary and based on
performance.
Finally, industrial policy's practitioners need to
bear in mind that it aims to serve society at large,
not the bureaucrats who administer it or the
businesses that receive the incentives. To guard
against abuse and capture, industrial policy needs
be carried out in a transparent and accountable
manner, and its processes must be open to new
entrants as well as incumbents.
The standard rap against industrial policy is that
governments cannot pick winners. Of course they
cannot, but that is largely irrelevant. What
determines success in industrial policy is not the
ability to pick winners, but the capacity to let the
losers go, a much less demanding requirement.
Uncertainty ensures that even optimal policies will
lead to mistakes. The trick is for governments to
recognise those mistakes and withdraw support before
they become too costly.
Thomas Watson, the founder of IBM, once said, "If
you want to succeed, raise your error rate." A
government that makes no mistakes when promoting
industry is one that makes the bigger mistake of not
trying hard enough.
Industrial policy is a state of mind whose
successful practitioners understand that it is more
important to create a climate of collaboration
between the government and private sector. |