The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Fronts (EPRDF) nine central committee members who will not run in the election, as announced by the party two weeks ago, will no longer hold government positions, a senior EPRDF member anonymously told Fortune. As if to leave no doubt about the sincerity of the move, this official said that the party deliberated on introducing change into the party machinery for three years.

Even before the local and international media as well as those in the opposition started discussing Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s expression of his desire to leave office, the party had been working on it, according to a party publication. The EPRDF wants to quash all speculations as to the reason, claiming that there is nothing but a desire to change and a response to the bad election outcome in Addis Abeba in 2005.

The party’s ideological publication, Addis Raey, claims in its July 2009 edition that the EPRDF has put in place a mechanism for the selection and succession of party leaders, key criteria to measure the democratic nature of the party. Although the publication claims that there have been broad leadership changes over the years in the four member organisations of the EPRDF, i.e., the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO) and Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Front (SEPDF), its side of the argument has hardly been recognised by those in the opposition and some political analysts in academia.

However, the decision of the Central Committee of the EPRDF to exclude nine of its top members from the upcoming national elections, although not unexpected, has not been without intriguing doubts. These are nine of the 36 people in the EPRDF’s central committee, nine people coming from each organisation.

The composition of the nine people has affected only two elements of the giant political coalition: five from the TPLF and four from ANDM, OPDO and SEPDF have escaped unscathed. But it has got everybody thinking and guessing as to what may be in the mind of the party machinery.

Are these people really moving out of direct political power and intervention, as is claimed by the EPRDF leadership or is it just a façade or a trick played by the incumbent, as those in the opposition say?

Besides, while the EPRDF says that the change prepares it for the future, others argue that the removal of those people is of no consequence when it comes to the behaviour of the EPRDF as a political party.

Taking things at face value, the TPLF will be shedding Seyoum Mesfin, deputy chairman of the EPRDF, as well as Tsegaye Berhe, Abadi Zemu, Arkebe Okubay and Tewodros Hagos. The ANDM, too, will let go of Addisu Legesse, chairman of the ANDM, as well as Tefera Walwa, Bereket Simon and Tadesse (Tinkishu) Kassa, board chairman of TIRET.

Seyoum, Addisu, Arkebe, and Tefera will all not go back to their positions as foreign minister, deputy prime minister, minister for capacity building and state minister for Works and Urban Development, according to the EPRDF official.  Tsegaye, too, will not go back to his presidency of the Tigray Regional State, whether or not the EPRDF wins the election.

 

Lidetu Ayalew (EDP): I believe that one party member may or may not have to run for election. One way or another, they still hold key posts in the government. A simple example is Tefera Walwa. He lost in two successive elections but he still holds a ministerial position.		Seyee Abraha (UDJ): It does not mean that they do not have a role in the party. I believe they will have inputs in decision and policy making, even if they work behind the scene. The Prime Minister will include whoever he wants, even if that individual does not run for election.		Ayele Chamiso (CUD): They are prominent figures and pillars that made the party strong. Bereket Simon is talented and resourceful. I admire and respect him and that goes for the rest. I am sure it is going to be a big loss for the party. Still it does not mean that they cannot be replaced.		Negasso Gidada (PhD) (UDJ): The focus should not be on the non-participating individuals because I believe that there will be no change at all. It all depends on the political ideology the party currently follows. All of them are Revolutionary Democrats and they will most definitely stay as one.

Hailu Shawel (Eng) (AEUP): It seems like a strategy shift. Still, it is not the individuals that the people despise; it is the party policy. This is neither an advantage nor a disadvantage to the opposition. I do not know much about the newcomers, but I believe they will only implement the policy of the party.		Beyene Petros (Prof) (FJDD - Medrek): This succession does not show direction. Politics is not about being young or experienced; it basically depends on the capacity of the person. I presume that the outgoing members have already cut some deals. I believe the EPRDF is playing some sort of a political game.		Bulcha Demeksa: This is a tactic and honestly, I do not think that they will be out of the picture. I cannot imagine how the Prime Minister will rule the country without these individuals by his side. But just because these men are not running for election does not mean that they are useless.		Temesgen Zewde (UDJ): To begin with, these individuals did not have much input. It was like an exaggerated political persona. The ones who are going to take over might not be identical, but I am sure they will be similar. This will have no impact on Ethiopian politics.

“The party is having a vital transformation within itself because of the loss the EPRDF suffered in the 2005 election in Addis Abeba,” a political analyst said.

The party announced at its general assembly in 2001 that party elders who had been around since the armed struggle and still holding political and government positions would be gradually replaced by newer and younger politicians in a step by step process that would take place every five years.

Aside from this generalised announcement, only the Prime Minister had been vocal about his desire to leave office time and again, and yet he remains. But recently other senior members of the EPRDF have also been raising the same question.

Again taking things at face value, the EPRDF has acted true to its word. It is the veterans that have gone, while the OPDO and SEPDF members are almost all new recruits of the post civil war era, with the exception of Aba Dulla Gemeda, president of the Oromia Regional State, and Kuma Demeksa, mayor of Addis Abeba.

Exactly what role each of the people leaving is to have is yet to be decided by the central committee, according to the EPRDF official. However, there are some clues.

“The individuals will have different posts like becoming ambassadors and representatives to the United Nations; they will also become  heads of development enterprises, teachers of party politics, as well as becoming involved in policy formulation,” the official said.

Such could be the fate of all provided that the EPRDF turns out to be the winner of the May 23, 2010 election. None of them will, however, hold government offices, according to the same source.

However, this view of change is refuted by most of the opposition members who believe that the members could still hold key government posts if the winner of the election turns out to be EPRDF.

“Ministers are not required to run for election since they are appointed by the Prime Minister and we have seen that with the case of Tefera Walwa,” Lidetu Ayalew, president of Ethiopian Democratic Party told Fortune.

And surely Article 74 of the constitution upholds such appointments, and a political expert mentions this article as evidence that the changes which the EPRDF put in place at the party level were phoney, and that the people would still end up getting government appointments.

Tefera’s case was different this time, since he is not running in election, the party official said. He had taken part in the earlier elections, losing the last two. He defends the new changes as being only a succession and argues against it being considered otherwise.

Interestingly, some of the opposition members believe that the change in the EPRDF camp is a big one and that not having the individuals that are not running for election will be a big loss to the party.

“Bereket Simon, for instance, is talented and resourceful. I admire and respect him and that goes for the rest. These people are prominent figures and pillars that made the party strong,” Ayele Chamiso, chairman of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, told Fortune.

An academic in Political Science applauded the move as pragmatic, and said that would put too much pressure on the opposition.

“I think the EPRDF is coming to reality,” he said. “Politics should be sensible and accommodate change.”

The impact of such changes by any party on the public, according to this analyst, is however determined by the legitimacy of the party and how people accept that party. “Still no change is seen within the opposition bloc,” this analyst said.

These same opposition leaders however argue that the changes in the house of the EPRDF are only superficial changes that do not affect the heart of the organisation.

“Individuals are not the focal point here,” said Negasso Gidada, downplaying the impact of the change. “It is the party and its ideology that should be taken into consideration because the policy of the party has not been changed.”

If the change affects in any way the chances of the EPRDF and those of the opposition as well as the future of Ethiopian politics, that remains to be seen. The EPRDF is yet to prove whether the change was not simply the replacement of nine people by nine other like minded ones.

By BRUH YIHUNBELAY
FORTUNE STAFF WRITER