When Girma Wake, the seasoned chief executive officer of Ethiopian Airlines, called a press conference on Wednesday, February 24, 2010, he had nothing of significance to say in terms of shedding any light on the ongoing investigation of the ET409 accident. Perhaps, that was deliberate. He might have wanted to pre-empt what looked like rushed conclusions increasingly coming from the authorities in Beirut, who were keen to shift the blame to “human error.”

He called the press conference ahead of the release of preliminary findings from investigations of the plane’s flight data and cockpit voice recorders (black box) expected in the coming days. If Girma and his team are trying to distance themselves and the airline from such hasty remarks, it ought to be commendable. All the other parties in the case, including the manufacturer, are doing exactly the same, while the truth of what exactly caused the downfall of the plane in the early hours of January 25, 2010, remains buried deep in the Mediterranean Sea, perhaps never to be revealed.

In the meantime, and at the unfortunate expense of the grieving family, the blame game will likely continue. The accident, like many others, has attracted many speculative remarks and assumptions and has been a field day for the international media.

Ruling out one speculation and embracing another has been the style for the last month. Such has been the case thus far. With no evidence to support their claims, one is hauling other party over the coals. This is an overt and obsolete way of playing the blame game.

Last month was an unfortunately dramatic period in the nation’s flag carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, it is appropriate to remember the milieu, much more than the substance, which in both cases was actually never properly addressed.

This time period could be deemed as one of the most difficult times in the professional life of Girma, the chief executive officer of Ethiopian, who in fact has remained silent during that time but suddenly came onto the scene, enraged over the way things were being handled. Again, he has a point.

Should the conclusion be one that puts the blame on “human error,” which simply means that the pilots made some kind of mistake? The ramifications for the reputation of the safety records and procedures of the national carrier would be too stressful to contemplate.

Nevertheless, everyone is attempting to be an oracle, and nothing and no one has been proven right or wrong. 

To its credit, Ethiopian has an outstanding record in terms of safety issues. Compare its record with, for instance, Air France, a European company formed of six merged airlines in October 1933. Beginning with its first accident on October 27, 1949, it has suffered 27 crashes since then, almost one in every decade. Its latest unfortunate accident was on June 1, 2009. Air France Flight 477, an Airbus 300-200, disappeared, never to be seen again, on its way from Rio de Janeiro to Paris. No passenger has been reported to have survived.

Since its founding in 1945, eight years after Air France, Ethiopian has had three accidents. The first was on September 15, 1988, when a Boeing 737-200 was forced to land back at Bahir Dar Airport, after pigeons were sucked into its motors. Thirty one of the 105 passengers died. On November 23, 1996, a Boeing 767-200ER was hijacked en route from Addis Abeba to Nairobi and, thus, forced to ditch near a beach at Moroni, Comoros Islands, after running out of fuel while trying to land. Ten of the 12 crewmembers and 117 of the 160 passengers died.

The latest accident in Beirut was the third for Ethiopian over the past six decades. Should managers of Ethiopian argue that theirs is a record that passes with flying colours, it would only make sense.

And what sort of pilot error would cause the ditching of an aircraft, with some sort of fire dropping from the sky (as one eyewitness told the international media earlier during the accident), all in four seconds, which was the time between the loss of communication to the control tower and when the aircraft plunged into the sea?

But, if “human error” was to be ruled out as a cause of the accident, there could be a case to make on the technical failure of the aircraft, a possible conclusion that would put the spotlight on Boeing.

It ought to be of no surprise should Boeing’s managers try to distance themselves from the blame. They have already done that by claiming that the aircraft was certified to be fit to fly only a month before the accident happened. And every time an aircraft of such size takes off, ground technicians of the managing airline have to sign it off to go airborne.

Nevertheless, there appears to be a troubling coincidence with the accident Kenyan Airways suffered in May 2007, when its KQ705, an aircraft of the same type manufactured by Boeing, plunged immediately after takeoff from Douala International Airport, Cameroon. The similarity to the accident that happened in Beirut is simply striking if not a powerful link to suggest that these aircrafts may have some systemic issues.

In both cases, the flight was in the early hours of the morning, communication was lost immediately after take off, the crash happened within a few minutes after going airborne, and the cause of accident was initially reported as thunder and lightening.

Would deeper investigation lead to finding more of a pattern between these two accidents, which may implicate the manufacturer?

The Boeing 737, first introduced in the 1960s, is a workhorse for many short and medium range routes, but there is one factor that needs a bit of attention. The 40-year track record of the Boeing 737 shows that there were 68 accidents, including the ET409 and KQ705.

Such a conclusion, when 90pc of the wreckage of the ET409 aircraft remains deep in the sea, may take over two years to be completed. Boeing, or the engine maker, General Electric, whose corporate interests are at stake, would do anything in their power to have a different conclusion, although privately they may certainly take advantage of such reports to correct what was wrong with their product.  

Should Boeing and General Electric clear their names from the blame game, it may be discovered that something happened in and around Rafik Hariri International Airport, Beirut that night that could bring a mammoth object down from the sky in only four seconds. This may lead to a whole lot of conspiracy theories about the security situation of the host country, which is not short of such episodes.

In a world of high-level and closed-door politics and conspiracies, should nothing be inferred by the statement made by the current Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad al-Din al-Hariri, that Israeli fighter jets are frequent “visitors” of the Lebanese airspace, a day after the Ethiopian Airlines management issued a press statement “not ruling out sabotage” as a cause of the accident? And Hezbollah, who reportedly lost some of its people on that flight, has missiles which are the Israelis’ hostile neighbours.

It should be of no surprise if Lebanese authorities are trying hard and hammer the issue so much in their bid to make the whole sage appear as a fault of Ethiopian pilots. An assault by an external force could only mean regional trouble in their rather shaky and divided government.

Neither should it be surprising that Girma, who seems perplexed and vexed at times, burst out when asked about pilot error on Wednesday, February 24, 2010 as being the cause of the accident. Fumed by the remarks, he said that this was not the time to flex one’s political muscle and that those who do so must be disciplined. He could not have been more forceful.

It is regrettable that this should be a stage for shows and theatrics. This debacle, in the wake of the accident, ought not to be about such impulsive things. Lives of 90 individuals have been lost. Ethiopian has not ruled out anything yet; its managers say anything is possible. Maybe the airline knows too much or too little to disclose anything, but the clock is ticking and the truth seems to be starting to wither away.

The families, relatives and friends of the victims and the world at large would definitely be disappointed to not have any factual answers, and would hold the officials and all concerned bodies responsible for the accident of ET409.

Well touché! But if not addressed promptly, the truth, which is the one thing that can set everyone free - that is free from making infantile mistakes and free from disregarding the expectations of the public - is bound to be hidden forever.