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Being an incumbent is an advantage when the one that
was in power previously was bad by nearly all
standards, such as the Derg. Whatever good there is
in the incumbent will be compared against the poor
standards of the former regime.
Today there are more roads, more schools, more
health facilities, more private sector investments.
. . There is also more freedom; social groups that
were once sidelined and ignored now have the
opportunity to go to school. They are educated in
their own languages.
In a few months’ time the 19th anniversary of the
coming to power of the Revolutionary Democrats will
be celebrated. First it came to power by means of
brut force; then it continued holding power by means
of a democracy whose legitimacy is questionable and
that so far has not been able to remit the
ascendancy of any other power. The Ethiopian
People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) led
government has the media in its hands, which, in the
context of developmental journalism, speaks of the
good work that has been done.
On the surface there seems to be nothing wrong with
that.
What about when that happens for a whole 19 years –
always comparing, always making sure that the 1991
to 2010 period is compared to the 1974-1983 period?
On Tuesday, February 2, 2010, state radio had a
programme on the development work that had been done
in Alaba, in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and
Peoples Regional State (SNNPRS). It was so
important that the regular radio drama which was
presented after the 9:00pm evening news had to be
pushed to 10:20pm. Representatives of the woreda
(the administrative division below state and zone
levels) proudly spoke of how, in the bad old days,
during the reign of the Derg, there was no one in
the area who had even completed high school.
They spoke of all the good things the development
focused state body of the incumbent had provided
them. All along their point of reference was a
government that disappeared 19 years ago.
Such radio and television documentaries give
opposition members heartache. These programmes are
arguably part of blatant election campaigns that
started ahead of the schedule that has been set by
the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE). And
while they tell the audience that the EPRDF
government has done much good for Ethiopia compared
to the Derg (which is true), they seem to be
implying that only the EPRDF can work best for this
country.
Inadvertently, too, these programmes may aim to form
a link of sorts between the Derg and the opposition.
In a recent interview with a local newspaper on the
sharing of airtime and column allocation for
contending parties on all existing radios and state
owned newspapers, Merera Gudina (PhD) complained
that the incumbent has all the government media
available to promote itself, even when not specified
for election purposes, while the opposition would
only take the airtime that has been allocated to
them specifically for elections.
Of course, such complaints have oft been repeated by
various opposition leaders ever since the first
election in the post-Derg era. They accuse the
government of abusing the media, terrifying the
voting public, and preventing people from supporting
opposition parties, arresting opposition
campaigners, and organising gangs of pro-EPRDF youth
to do things that affect the winning chances of the
opposition in the election.
The opposition parties do not seem to have realised
that, in a way, the odds are against them in this
election. Had the loose electoral front in 2005 that
was the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) gone
to parliament and taken over the Addis Abeba
Administration with all its challenges, they would
not only have helped lay the ground for a political
environment where two different parties could hold
different powers and coexist, but the challenges
they would have faced and the manner in which they
dealt with them would also have helped them gain (or
lose) points among the public. Rather, they chose to
let the media that helped them go up to bring them
down as well. Of course, this was coupled with their
own immense folly.
Today the kind of media that existed in 2005 is no
more in play. There were newspapers that told the
truth whenever they could but also never hesitated
to print lies in an effort to bring the downfall of
the EPRDF. Those media elements had to be handled
with care then because they had their own agenda,
which in the end would not even serve the opposition
they seemed to support.
With or without a care, that kind of media is not
around anymore. In fact, the private media is in a
weaker position today than it was five years ago.
The opposition is going to have to fight alone.
Sorry.
There also seems to be a notion among the opposition
that says, “Because people do not like the EPRDF,
victory is within our grasp.”
Certainly, they will have some votes from people who
in no way want the EPRDF to stay in power. But they
have to realise that there are voters who were born
in the EPRDF era. Besides, voters ranging in age
from 18 to their mid-30s, probably have experienced
too little of the pre-1991 days for their choice to
be affected by experiences with the Derg. The Derg
is an old story for many young voters. There are
some among them who have no idea who Mengistu
Hailemariam was.
Add another element. The incumbent has not just been
sitting idle. Some determined anti-EPRDF citizens
might want to believe that the country has been
deteriorating over the past 19 years. Reports all
around indicate, however, that the EPRDF has handled
the economy reasonably well. For years now, the
economy of Ethiopia has been among the fastest
growing in Africa. For the last six consecutive
years now, the economy expanded by double digits.
There are many youths today who will come out and
proclaim that they started earning their daily bread
using government credit.
One may argue about quality, but it is undeniable
that there are more roads, schools, health
facilities, and investments in the country. The
Revolutionary Democrats have also left no stone
unturned to expand their membership base among the
youth, although there could be serious questions
whether all new recruits are devotees. The
parliament it has dominated has also produced laws
that restrict the money-raising capabilities of the
opposition parties.
Circumstances have been such that the EPRDF has used
the period since 2005 to ensure the chances of
staying in power. Indeed, it has taken advantage of
subsequent years from its “rude awakening”.
The opposition camp is yet to show what it has been
up to. So far it seems to be replaying the same old
songs about how the EPRDF is creating an impossible
environment for them, however true that may be. |
