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Ethiopia's
advantages on the horizons of climate negotiations are
subject to how deep, quick, and thoughtful the nation plays
the game in the global playground, no matter its size.
Common sense dictates that Ethiopia's position gives it more
advantages than other countries grouped with it as the
former Kyoto giants like China, India, Brazil and South
Africa, a club of nations called the BASIC Block, have been
moved into their own group.
We have
established nearly adequate indigenous intellectual prowess
in every sector, requiring only intellectually open minds to
cope with the ever-changing jargon, emerging opportunities,
positioning for the transfer of technical know-how, and, at
times, discovery of new technology ourselves. Likewise, we
have enormous resources, broad plans and an encouraging
political will to follow a low carbon development path in
electricity, energy, transportation, construction, waste
processing, industry, land use and forestry.
What
remains is communicating the exact details of what we want
to achieve and how.
An
enormous chunk of funds from private and multilateral
sources are being established nearly every week for such
potential mobilisations to deal with climate change. Nearly
three billion dollars was already established last December,
2009, through an array of multilateral and public funds.
Investors representing 13 trillion dollars met in New York
last week and "urged policymakers to act swiftly" to quickly
embrace the Copenhagen Accord and clearly put their
political will to action in the form of ambitious nationally
appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).
They say they are ready to invest in mitigation actions and
projects primarily where there are participatory NAMAs,
transparent desire, and relevant policies. The IMF annex in
the accord expects NAMAs to be a list of specific project
activities, an economy wide but sector specific policy of
mitigation actions, or a general list of nationally allowed
economic actions relevant for mitigation. For the most
elasticity, proposed actions under NAMAs from developing
nations, including least developed countries (LDCs), cannot
be too specific (as at the project level), and the envisaged
actions may not be restricted to implementation by a
specific body at the time of its submission (unless national
law does so).
Given that mitigation under the accord is voluntary for
LDCs and that it does not have details on mandatory global
cooperation for mitigation, cooperation would more likely be
driven by factors such as the location of an action,
economic attractiveness for the fund provider, and
operational flexibility under proposed NAMAs.
Aiming to tap global market opportunities and, of course,
tackling dangerous climate change through implementing NAMAs,
countries are rushing to decide whether they will formally
endorse the Copenhagen Accord, and, if they do, to comply
with the deadline for January 31, 2010, for the submission
of economy wide emissions reduction targets. It has emerged
that some countries have so far announced their intention to
be party to the accord. But many are not willing to put
emission reduction targets on the table.
BASIC countries, the most advanced of the developing
nations, met last Sunday, January 25, 2010, over such
decisions and have shown an interest in signing the accord.
Though, some of them argued that the date of submission for
NAMAs is too short to come up with farsighted and educated
lists of mitigation actions.
Their concern is clear and simple. Economic activities that
would otherwise release those targeted emissions during
business as usual are vast and burgeoning, and a month is
too short to address all such sectors and sub-activities in
each sector listed under NAMAs, they argue. Moreover, the
implementation of these mitigation actions is best envisaged
as a combination of public and private, multilaterally or
bilaterally driven NAMAs. Given that BASIC nations are quite
advanced and quickly developing further still, we may find
that submitting NAMAs in the letter and spirit of the accord
is a tricky venture and is worth some well-informed thought.
The most tricky part is that there is no bold
administrative body named in the accord - as in the case of
the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
secretariat for Kyoto - to request accurate clarifications
on the "do's" and "do not's" of the submission. The UNFCCC
is best situated to assume such a position right after a
good number of nations endorse the accord, in a pure chicken
and egg fashion.
Just as there are global targets, numbers, and mechanisms,
there is a demand for the same level of detail locally, and
just as there are emerging modalities, champions, and
financiers for global low carbon cooperation, there is a
demanded for the same level of appropriate playing field
details locally. Each sector relevant to mitigation actions
requires wider thought in every respect, the participation
of all viable indigenous stakeholders working out exact
details subject to periodic amendment, and engagment in a
continued daily watch of global opportunities.
Such moves would avoid repeating the kind of low regional
participation that LDCs exhibited in Kyoto mechanisms.
Planning for mitigation action demands the mopping up of
every sector and lifestyle with these concepts. Expert
analyses suggest that our advantages are not largely in the
dirt of the baseline emissions of our core economic sectors;
it is rather in the potential of meeting the demand that we
are yet to experience through innovative thinking to produce
low carbon emissions in nearly every sector. A fresh thought
may include brainstorming over whether it is still desirable
to keep a single national electric grid or not. After an
elementary mathematical exercise, one can deduce find that
the Ethiopian grid releases only about 0.0034tn of carbon
dioxide for each megawatt of power generated in an hour, a
number too low for any new grid connected renewable energy
project to argue that it reduces pollution from business as
usual.
A desirable mitigation action in the power sector would
therefore be demonstrated through either off grid exercises,
a decentralised grid, or by increasing the grid's capability
to meet future economic development plans. The later
requires a sound and articulate engagement in global
methodological negotiations in terms of changing the
existing methodological tools, which are feared to have
provided perverse incentives to industries in China and
India.
Such options as the later would even have validated Kyoto
eligibility through our recent, famous and fresh hydropower
success stories. An alternative or a dual advantage may be
secured through designing mitigation actions in
complementary sectors benefiting from a carbon neutral grid.
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