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The race
is on to fill the most important economic policy position in
the world. United States Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke's term ends in January, and President Barack Obama
must decide before then: either re-appoint Bernanke or go
with someone else. The names most often mentioned are Larry
Summers and Janet Yellen - with more solid Democratic
credentials.
It is a
decision of momentous consequence not just for the US, but
also for the world economy. As guardians of the nation's
money supply and setters of short-term interest rates,
central bankers have always played a critical role. Lower
the interest rate too much, and inflation and monetary
instability result. Raise it too high, and the economy
slides into recession and unemployment.
Monetary
policy is hardly a science, so a good central banker must be
humble. He must appreciate the limits of his understanding
and of the efficacy of the tools at his disposal. Yet, he
cannot afford to be perceived as indecisive, which would
only invite destabilizing financial speculation.
Indeed,
as important as their functions are, in recent decades
central banks have become even more significant as a
consequence of the development of financial markets. Even
when not formally designated as such, central banks have
become the guardians of financial-market sanity. The dangers
of failing at this task have been made painfully clear in
the sub-prime mortgage debacle.
Under
Obama's proposed new rules, the Fed will have even larger
responsibilities, and will be charged with averting
financial crises and ensuring that banks are not taking on
too much risk.
This is a
job at which former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan proved to be
a spectacular failure. His blind spot on financial market
excesses - the little 'flaw' in his thinking, as he later
termed it - left him oblivious to the dangers of Wall Street
titans' financial innovations. As a member of the Fed's
Board of Governors under Greenspan during 2002-2005,
Bernanke can also be faulted for having played along.
The Fed
chairman exerts global influence not only through monetary
policy, but also through his words. He sets the tone for
policy discussions and helps shape the belief system within
which policymakers around the world operate.
What
hampered Greenspan and Bernanke as financial regulators was
that they were excessively in awe of Wall Street and what it
does. They operated under the assumption that what is good
for Wall Street is good for 'Main Street'. This will no
doubt change as a result of the crisis, even if Bernanke
remains at the helm.
But what
the world needs is a Fed chairman who is instinctively
skeptical of financial markets and their social value.
Here are
some of the lies that the finance industry tells itself and
others, and which any new Fed chairman will need to resist.
Prices set by financial markets are the right ones for
allocating capital and other resources to their most
productive uses. That is what textbooks and financiers tell
you, but we have now many reasons to be wary.
In the
language of economists, there are far too many 'market
failures' in finance for these prices to be a good guide for
resource allocation. There are ‘agency problems’ that drive
a wedge between the interests of the owners of capital and
the interests of bank CEOs and other finance executives.
Asymmetric information between sellers and buyers of
financial products can easily leave buyers vulnerable to
abuse, as we saw with mortgage-backed securities.
Implicit
or explicit bail-out guarantees, moreover, induce too much
risk-taking. Large financial intermediaries endanger the
entire financial system when they use the wrong risk model
and make bad decisions.
Regulation is at best a partial remedy for such problems.
The prices that financial markets generate are as likely to
send the wrong signals as they are to send the right ones.
Financial
markets discipline governments. This is one of the most
commonly stated benefits of financial markets, yet the claim
is patently false. When markets are in a euphoric state,
they are in no position to exert discipline on any borrower,
let alone a government with a reasonable credit rating.
If in
doubt, ask scores of emerging-market governments that had no
difficulty borrowing in international markets, typically in
the run-up to an eventual payments crisis.
In many
of these cases [Turkey during the 1990s is a good example],
financial markets enabled irresponsible governments to
embark on unsustainable borrowing sprees. When ‘market
discipline’ comes, it is usually too late, too severe, and
applied indiscriminately.
The
spread of financial markets is an unmitigated good. Well,
no. Financial globalization was supposed to have enabled
poor, undercapitalized countries to gain access to the
savings of rich countries. It was supposed to have promoted
risk-sharing globally.
In fact,
neither expectation was fulfilled. In the years before the
financial crash, capital moved from poor countries to rich
countries, rather than vice versa. This may not have been a
bad thing, since it turns out that large (net) borrowers in
international markets tend to grow less rapidly than others.
And
economic volatility has actually increased in emerging
markets under financial globalization, owing in part to
frequent financial crises spawned by mobile capital.
Financial
innovation is a great engine of productivity growth and
economic well-being. Again, no. Imagine that we had asked
five years ago for examples of really useful kinds of
financial innovation. We would have heard about a long-list
of mortgage-related instruments, which supposedly made
financing available to home buyers who would not have been
able to purchase homes otherwise. We now know where that led
us.
The truth
lies closer to Paul Volcker's view that for most people the
automated teller machine (ATM) has brought bigger benefits
than any financially-engineered bond.
The world
economy has been run for too long by finance enthusiasts. It
is time that finance skeptics began to take over. |